Donald Trump’s influence is significantly impacting the upcoming elections in Canada and Australia, with opposition conservative parties, initially favored, now trailing in the polls. Analysts attribute this shift to concerns over sovereignty and responses to Trump’s policies, resulting in a rise in support for center-left incumbents as both countries approach election day.
In the upcoming weeks, voters in Canada and Australia will cast their ballots, with the opposition conservative parties originally appearing poised for victory; however, they have since experienced significant declines in their polling numbers. Both Pierre Poilievre of Canada’s Conservatives and Peter Dutton of Australia’s Liberals now find themselves trailing behind centre-left incumbents.
Ben Wellings, a senior lecturer in politics at Monash University in Melbourne, notes the intriguing parallel between these two elections, stating that, “Both Poilievre and Dutton are dropping in the polls. And I do think that this is something to do with the problem that Donald Trump is posing for these centre-right candidates.” He further reflects on the impact of Trump’s presidency, emphasizing that the anticipated right-wing wave has not materialized as expected.
The decline in polling for conservative parties in both nations is pronounced. In Australia, the Coalition had initially gained traction early in 2023, surpassing Labor in popularity by late last year. However, their poll numbers plummeted starting in February, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration and the onset of a trade war directed at allied nations.
Similarly, in Canada, the Conservatives witnessed a sharp decline in support beginning in January, shifting from a 20-point lead to a six-point deficit against the ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This erosion of support may be attributed to Trudeau’s strong response to Trump’s trade actions and rhetoric regarding Canadian sovereignty.
Political theorist Clayton Chin emphasizes that challenges to sovereignty resonated deeply with the Canadian electorate: “When you start questioning sovereignty…that completely changed the tone of the election.” Pierre Poilievre struggled to adapt to this shift, impacting his appeal.
In February, Australian Opposition Leader Peter Dutton received criticism for expressing admiration for Trump, labeling him as “shrewd” and a “big thinker and deal maker.” This link to Trump was further solidified when one of Dutton’s appointments echoed Trump’s policies, garnering mixed responses from the public.
Antony Green, the ABC’s chief election analyst, remarked on the similarities of Trump’s influence across both nations, though he warns against overstating the effects. He noted that while populist rhetoric in Australia initially boosted the Coalition, the Liberal Party has recently distanced itself from such stances.
In Canada, the impact of Trump is perceived as more direct and visceral, with concerns related to sovereignty and economic sanctions affecting public sentiment. A recent poll in Australia revealed that 35% of undecided voters were less likely to support Dutton due to Trump’s influence, compared to 24% for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Despite historical ties to the U.S., sentiments of betrayal regarding Trump’s leadership resonate in both Canada and Australia. Dr. Chin asserts, “There’s a real strong sense of the betrayal of friends,” emphasizing the complex feelings surrounding their countries’ relationships with the United States.
As the elections approach, it remains essential to remember that polling data may not always reflect the final outcome, and unexpected results are possible. Kory Teneycke, a Conservative strategist, criticizes his party’s handling of the campaign, highlighting the significant turnaround in Canadian polling as being indicative of Trump’s influence.
Antony Green concludes that such dramatic shifts in public support are rarely seen without significant external influences, identifying Trump as the major factor in the unfolding political landscape.
As both Canada and Australia prepare for their upcoming elections, the influence of Donald Trump remains a pivotal factor affecting the polling trajectory of conservative parties. A shift in public sentiment appears to stem from concerns regarding sovereignty and trust in American leadership. While polling may not always predict the final results accurately, the current landscape suggests that Trump’s impact should be thoroughly understood and considered by both party leaders and voters alike.
Original Source: www.abc.net.au
