In October 2023, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia’s leaders met in Asmara to forge military alliances, significantly reacting to Ethiopia’s rising influence in the Horn of Africa. The ongoing tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Entebbe Agreement have prompted Egypt to strengthen its military ties with neighboring countries and seek to regain influence previously held in the region. The article examines these developments and their implications for future relations among the involved nations.
In October 2023, the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia convened in Asmara for a trilateral summit aimed at enhancing regional cooperation. During this meeting, the leaders committed to military collaboration, pledging to support Somalia’s counterterrorism initiatives by deploying troops within the framework of the African Union mission. This development was perceived by analysts as a strategic maneuver by Cairo in light of Ethiopia’s increasing influence, particularly following Ethiopia’s memorandum with Somaliland to establish a military base in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Egypt’s ongoing diplomatic tensions with Ethiopia primarily stem from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), viewed by Egypt as a significant threat to its national security and its water supply from the Nile. Recent developments, such as the enactment of the Entebbe Agreement concerning Nile water management, have heightened concerns for both Egypt and Sudan. The summit in Asmara represents Egypt’s attempts to restore its influence and alliances across Africa through both military and diplomatic engagements. Professor Iman Abdel Azim of Cairo University highlighted this as a response to growing Ethiopian dominance over Nile resources. The strengthening of military ties was further underscored by military agreements between Egypt and Somalia, where joint defense pacts have resulted in shipments of military equipment. Similarly, Egypt’s agreement with Eritrea indicates a broader shift towards military-oriented alliances in the region, as emphasized by Amani El-Tawil, Director of the African Program at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. The GERD, which started as a developmental initiative, has transitioned into a nationalistic endeavor marked by significant reductions in Egypt’s water availability. Experts, including Professor Abbas Sharaky, have underscored the severe impact this has had, with Egypt now forced to resort to alternative water reserves. Attempts over the last decade to negotiate a settlement have yielded no results, leaving Egypt with minimal options. Additionally, historical context showcases a significant decline in Egypt’s influence in Africa since the era of President Gamal Abdel Nasser, whose policies actively engaged with African nations. This decline continued through succeeding administrations, culminating in the current regional dynamics where Ethiopia has begun to assert substantial influence, including its controversial moves concerning Somaliland. Analysts believe this emerging scenario points towards potential conflicts in the region as both nations vie for alliances, with Egypt working to consolidate support among other nations. The interaction between Egypt and its neighbors will inevitably shape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, particularly in light of the significant transboundary water management issues that underlie these tensions. A burgeoning conflict may underscore future interactions as Egypt seeks to leverage its relationships to secure negotiations on critical issues surrounding the GERD and Nile Basin agreements, thereby asserting its regional standing against Ethiopia’s ambitions.
The article addresses the geopolitical tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia in the context of the Horn of Africa, particularly focusing on their disputes over the Nile River and the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The backdrop includes Egypt’s historical influence in Africa, which has waned over the years due to various political shifts. The Entebbe Agreement regarding Nile River management has intensified these tensions, especially following Ethiopia’s unilateral construction of the dam. Regional alliances are shifting as Egypt seeks to forge military partnerships to counter Ethiopia’s actions and reclaim its standing in Africa.
In conclusion, the evolving political landscape in the Horn of Africa reflects a significant shift in alliances, with Egypt intensifying its military and diplomatic efforts to counteract Ethiopia’s growing influence. The geopolitical struggles over the management of the Nile River and the implications of the GERD crisis will continue to shape interactions among nations in the region. Egypt’s recent military agreements with Somalia and Eritrea signify its commitment to building a coalition to negotiate better terms concerning water security and regional stability. The unfolding developments warrant close observation as they could lead to increased tensions between the nations involved.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
