The article examines the alarming connection between climate change and the rise of authoritarian leaders, using Rodrigo Duterte’s exploitation of Super Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines as a case study. It presents recent research showing that severe storms can lead to decreased democracy scores in affected nations, contributing to the emergence of so-called “storm autocracies.” Additionally, psychological studies highlight how fear induced by climate threats can foster social divisions and support for authoritarian figures. Ultimately, the piece calls for democratic resilience in addressing these challenges.
In November 2013, Super Typhoon Yolanda struck the Philippines with extraordinary intensity, resulting in catastrophic damage and loss of life. In its aftermath, Rodrigo Duterte, then mayor of Davao City, seized the opportunity to enhance his political stature by pledging severe responses to looting, a stance that ultimately played a role in his successful presidential campaign in 2016. His subsequent presidency was marked by extreme measures, including a brutal war on drugs resulting in thousands of deaths, the imposition of martial law, and the expansion of police powers to detain individuals without warrant. The phenomenon of natural disasters, particularly in the context of climate change, reveals a disturbing trend wherein such crises can facilitate the rise of authoritarian leaders. This trend has not been limited to the Philippines; globally, leaders with authoritarian inclinations have emerged in nations such as India, Brazil, and the United States. Although the link between natural disasters and the ascendancy of strongman politicians can be complex and multifaceted, evidence suggests that voters in times of crisis may gravitate towards leaders who promise decisive action. Recent studies have highlighted the correlations between environmental disasters and diminishing democratic conditions. A significant development is the 2022 study conducted by economists in the UK and Australia, which established a causal relationship between severe storms and a decline in democracy scores in island nations. Their research revealed that islands experiencing destructive storms showed an average decrease of 4.25% in democratic governance the following year, coining the term “storm autocracies” to describe nations that have experienced prolonged dictatorial rule following climatic events. Furthermore, psychological studies have indicated that exposure to information regarding climate threats can induce negative sentiments toward marginalized groups, further exacerbating social divisions and fostering an environment conducive to authoritarian governance. This psychological response underscores the potential for climate change to engender fear and a desire for safety, compelling populations to support leaders who assert control and promise stability. Experts caution that authoritarian regimes, often unencumbered by human rights considerations, may be strategically more effective at addressing the challenges posed by climate change. Cases such as China illustrate a paradox where rapid renewable energy adoption coexists with repression and human rights abuses. Looking ahead, proponents of liberal democracy argue for the necessity of robust democratic responses to climate challenges. Suggested measures include legislative reforms to enhance voter rights, eradicate political gridlock, and harness climate activism as a unifying force toward collective action. Ultimately, the response to climate change and potential authoritarian shifts rests in the hands of the electorate. As Professor James McCarthy poignantly stated, “The future is not written. It is what we make it.”
This article analyzes the intersection of climate change and the rise of authoritarianism, particularly reflecting on the case of Super Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines as a pivotal moment for Rodrigo Duterte’s political ascent. It explores how natural disasters create an environment where strongman leaders can thrive by exploiting public fears and vulnerabilities. The broader implications for global politics amidst increasing climate crises are also discussed, alongside recent empirical research linking severe storms to democratic erosion.
The relationship between climate change and authoritarianism presents a dire challenge that necessitates a proactive and united response from democracies. The findings of recent studies illustrate how natural disasters can precipitate a shift toward autocratic governance, driven by collective vulnerability and fear. The rise of authoritarian leaders in response to such crises serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions in the face of escalating climate challenges. It is imperative for societies to reject despair and actively shape a future grounded in democratic values and collective action against the threats posed by climate change.
Original Source: www.fastcompany.com
