Rising tensions in the Horn of Africa are leading Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea to consider a collective security alliance against Ethiopia, particularly in response to Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, which threatens the stability and territorial integrity of Somalia. Amidst ongoing civil wars and the strengthening of extremist groups like Al Shabab, the potential for proxy conflicts similar to those of the Cold War era looms large, requiring international attention to maintain regional stability.
Recent discussions among the leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea suggest a potential alliance that could drastically affect the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics. This meeting, which took place in Asmara on October 10, 2024, reflects rising tensions primarily directed against Ethiopia. Following an agreement established in August 2024 between Egypt and Somalia regarding military cooperation, these three nations are now contemplating collective security measures or even economic sanctions against Ethiopia, primarily due to its controversial dealings with Somaliland. The Horn of Africa is already grappling with the aftermath of severe conflicts, exemplified by the civil war in Ethiopia which has resulted in over 600,000 deaths, compounded by the violence and displacement arising from the power struggle in Sudan. The proposed tripartite alliance is largely a response to Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland that allows Ethiopia direct access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera. This deal has ignited criticism from Somalia, which perceives it as a breach of its territorial integrity. Egypt, having longstanding tensions with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, views the circumstances as a strategic opportunity to tighten its grip on the situation and oppose further Ethiopian military presence in the region. However, while this coalition may serve as a tactical maneuver for Egypt, both Somalia and Eritrea appear to gain little beyond security assistance. Somalia’s internal strife, particularly with the increasing strength of Al Shabab, poses a significant challenge, as external support becomes critical for countering extremist threats. At the same time, Eritrea’s isolation due to continued sanctions drives it to seek potential partnerships with Ethiopia against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front amid fears of regional conflict. Thus, the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa not only threatens to encourage instability but also poses risks of Cold War-like proxy conflicts, where nations may find themselves further embroiled in local disputes that could spiral into broader hostilities. As the region navigates this volatile transformation, global powers must remain vigilant to prevent catastrophic consequences that could reverberate across the Horn of Africa and beyond.
The Horn of Africa has emerged as a critical focal point in recent geopolitical discussions, marked by a series of conflicts and shifting alliances. Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea’s conversations revolve around thwarting Ethiopia’s expanding influence, particularly following its controversial agreement with Somaliland, which threatens regional stability. The backdrop of a two-year civil war in Ethiopia, a humanitarian crisis in Sudan, and the emergence of extremist threats like Al Shabab contextualize these developments, highlighting the delicate nature of alliances and conflicts in a region historically fraught with tension and rivalries.
The recent diplomatic maneuvers among Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea signal a potential shift towards increased instability in the Horn of Africa. With rising hostilities directed at Ethiopia fueled by territorial concerns and historical grievances, the region faces the prospect of proxy conflicts reminiscent of past geopolitical rivalries. The unfolding scenarios necessitate close monitoring by international actors to avert a severe escalation of violence that could further destabilize the Horn of Africa and disrupt broader global trade routes.
Original Source: www.orfonline.org
