The UN warns that the world is heading towards a “catastrophic” global warming of 3.1 degrees Celsius without drastic emissions cuts. Current projections suggest temperature rises between 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius based on existing climate action commitments. As nations prepare for Cop29 talks in Azerbaijan, the urgency to fulfill international climate goals is emphasized, with calls for increased action and financial support to developing countries threatened by climate change.
The United Nations has issued a stark warning indicating that the world is on course for a “catastrophic” increase of 3.1 degrees Celsius in global temperatures by the end of this century. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) highlighted the urgent need for significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avert this outcome. The annual report emphasizes that without a massive global mobilization comparable to nothing previously seen, the international aim of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will soon become unattainable. Furthermore, the current trajectory suggests a rise in temperatures between 2.6 degrees Celsius and 3.1 degrees Celsius, dependent largely on the fulfillment of existing climate commitments by countries. The report arrives in anticipation of the upcoming UN Cop29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, where delegates are expected to address calls for more decisive action, including enhanced financial support for developing nations grappling with climate issues. At the Paris climate accord of 2015, nations had pledged to keep temperature increases to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This threshold is viewed by scientists as critical to avoiding the more severe consequences of climate change, including extreme heatwaves, droughts, flooding, and the collapse of vital ecosystems. Despite initial plans and commitments aimed at reducing emissions from fossil fuel usage and improving carbon-absorbing habitats like forests by 2030, UNEP warns that the realization of these goals is diminishing. The report signifies a troubling rise in global greenhouse gases, which increased by 1.3% in 2023 from 2022, with the G20 nations responsible for over three-quarters of these emissions. Even if countries adhere to their climate action plans through 2030, temperatures could still escalate to between 2.6 degrees Celsius and 2.8 degrees Celsius, underscoring the gravity of the situation as the nations are already falling short of these pledges. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has voiced that the world currently stands at a precarious juncture, stating, “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster – with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.” He cited the tangible effects of climate change, which can already be seen in extreme weather events, and urged for a comprehensive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. Furthermore, Inger Andersen, the UNEP Executive Director, emphasized the critical nature of the moment: “Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead and well below 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit.” She called for nations attending Cop29 to enhance their current actions, position themselves for stronger national commitments, and pursue a path towards keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius. Collectively, nations must commit to a 42% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and a 57% cut by 2035 to maintain the 1.5 degree Celsius target, according to UNEP. While technically feasible, achieving these targets would necessitate a monumental global effort to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, initiated promptly, particularly from the G20 countries.
The article discusses the significant potential increase in global temperatures stemming from inadequate action to combat climate change. It underscores the urgency expressed by the UN regarding the potential catastrophic consequences of failing to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in international agreements such as the Paris accord. The ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions, especially among leading global economies, poses a severe threat to the environment and vulnerable populations. The insights provided by the UN and UNEP serve to galvanize global cooperation and immediate action ahead of crucial climate negotiations.
The warning from the United Nations regarding the trajectory towards a potential 3.1 degrees Celsius increase in global temperatures serves as a pivotal call for action. The continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of compliance with climate commitments threaten the global aim of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Urgent mobilization and cooperative efforts are imperative, particularly from G20 nations, to ensure that the future of the planet remains sustainable and to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable populations. Without decisive action, the international climate goals will remain at risk of failure, pressing the need for immediate and coordinated global initiatives.
Original Source: www.independent.co.uk
