The likelihood of a new storm forming near the Caribbean has sharply decreased, with current forecasts indicating only a 20% chance of development in the mid-Atlantic disturbance. Meanwhile, a second disturbance off Central America has a 40% chance of strengthening, although heavy rainfall is anticipated in the region regardless of its development status.
Forecasters have noted a significant decrease in the likelihood of a new storm forming near the Caribbean within the coming week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has revised its assessment regarding a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic, indicating that the probability of this system strengthening over the next seven days has diminished to just 20%, with a mere 10% chance over the next two days. Even if the system succeeds in overcoming the challenges posed by dry air and disruptive wind shear from a cold front, prevailing computer models suggest that it would likely travel westward across the Caribbean as a weak storm, producing minimal rainfall. Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel commented on the situation, stating, “It’s either going to get absorbed by the front or die moving west. With the deep fall trough and front pushing through FL, this creates a safe haven for the USA.” In contrast, a different disturbance located off the coast of Central America appears to have an increasing chance of developing. The NHC has assigned it a 40% likelihood of becoming a tropical depression within the next week. Forecasters emphasize that this system could only gain strength over open waters; however, projected paths suggest it may eventually return towards land, potentially resulting in substantial flooding precipitation across Central America and southern Mexico. As stated by the NHC, “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.” This report includes contributions from Miami Herald reporter Devoun Cetoute.
The Caribbean region is frequently monitored during hurricane season due to the potential for tropical storm formation. The National Hurricane Center plays a critical role in providing updates on disturbances and forecasting their development. Current assessments indicate that a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic has low chances of strengthening, while another system near Central America may pose a risk of heavy rainfall, even if it does not fully develop into a tropical storm.
In summary, the potential for a new storm developing near the Caribbean has notably diminished, with the NHC indicating only a 20% chance for a system in the mid-Atlantic to strengthen over the next week. Conversely, a disturbance near Central America presents a higher likelihood of developing, with implications for heavy rainfall regardless of further development. Forecasters continue to monitor these systems closely to provide timely updates and warnings.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
