Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are forming a coalition aimed at countering perceived threats from Ethiopia’s regional activities under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This alliance emerged from a summit in Eritrea, where leaders agreed to enhance security measures and military capabilities. The geopolitical landscape remains complex with ongoing tension over Ethiopia’s mega-dam project on the Nile and current civil war in Sudan, complicating relationships and prompting fears of escalating conflicts.
In recent developments, a coalition has formed among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, perceived as a response to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s provocations. This meeting, which took place in Asmara, marks a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa, where these nations aim to establish an “axis” to counteract Ethiopia’s influence. The leaders agreed to bolster Somali state institutions to tackle internal challenges and enhance the military capabilities of the Somali National Federal Army against terrorism. Egypt’s engagement in this alliance is underscored by its longstanding concerns over Ethiopia’s construction of a mega-dam on the Nile, which Cairo believes jeopardizes its water security. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s recent actions regarding Somaliland have sparked tensions, with Ethiopia seeking historical access to the Red Sea despite Djibouti’s offer of a port alternative. The three nations’ collaboration comes amidst ongoing turmoil in neighboring Sudan, with shared interests raising fears of escalating conflicts throughout the region. The alliance might revive hostilities between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly given past alliances among different factions in the area. Moreover, Ethiopia’s relationship with the United Arab Emirates, which supports opposing forces within Sudan, signals further complications. Critics of Somalia’s current administration voice concerns that the government is inviting dangerous proxy conflicts, which could exacerbate existing clan divisions in an already fractured state. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught with potential for conflict as the actions of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia may inadvertently bolster groups such as al-Shabab, complicating the security situation further.
The alliance developing between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia is indicative of the shifting power dynamics in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has recently been criticized for his aggressive regional policies. The formation of this coalition underscores longstanding tensions, particularly regarding Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, which has caused strife not only with Egypt but throughout the Nile Basin. Furthermore, statutory issues surrounding Somaliland’s independence and its recognition by Ethiopia have strained relations further. Sudan’s current civil unrest has added another layer of complexity to the security landscape in the region, prompting nations to reassess their alliances and interests. Understanding these historical and geopolitical contexts is essential to grasp the implications of these new developments.
In summary, the burgeoning alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia poses significant implications for regional stability in the Horn of Africa. As these nations seek to consolidate their power against Ethiopia’s perceived aggressions, historical grievances, and the ramifications of Sudan’s ongoing conflict serve as critical context for evaluating the potential for future escalations. Discussions on military collaboration and security partnerships among these states highlight the intricate nature of alliances in a volatile region, raising concerns about the resurgence of proxy conflicts and civil unrest in Somalia.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
