An alliance is emerging among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia aimed at countering Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. Following a meeting in Asmara, the leaders signed a partnership focused on enhancing Somali security against terrorism, amidst rising tensions over Ethiopia’s claims to Red Sea access and its impacts on regional stability. The involvement of external powers further complicates the situation, posing risks of conflict escalation.
This article discusses the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, where Egypt is forging an alliance with Eritrea and Somalia to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The leaders of the three nations convened in Asmara, Eritrea, to solidify a security partnership aimed at bolstering Somali state institutions and countering terrorism. This new alignment appears to be a response to Ethiopia’s recent maneuvers, including its lease agreement with Somaliland for access to the Red Sea, which has reignited tensions with Somalia. The cooperation among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia also extends into the conflict in Sudan, revealing a web of alliances that may complicate the region’s stability. The presence of foreign powers in the region, such as the UAE and Turkey, adds to the complexity of these alliances. As this situation develops, there exists a genuine concern that the emergence of an alliance between Egypt and Eritrea could reignite hostilities with Ethiopia and bolster insurgent movements like al-Shabab, exacerbating the already fragmented state of affairs in Somalia.
The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is characterized by a series of longstanding tensions involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and other regional players. Ethiopia’s recent claim of historical rights to access the Red Sea through Somaliland, coupled with its management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, has alarmed Egypt, which relies heavily on this water source. Furthermore, the internal conflicts in Somalia and Sudan, fueled by historical grievances and external interventions, provide a backdrop for these recent alignments. The article brings attention to how military and diplomatic maneuvers among these nations, particularly Egypt’s newfound partnership with Somalia and Eritrea, are changing the dynamics in a volatile geopolitical area.
The formation of an alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia signifies a strategic shift in the Horn of Africa, with potential ramifications for Ethiopia and regional stability. As these nations collaborate to address shared security concerns, the risk of escalating tensions and proxy conflicts looms large, particularly with the involvement of external powers. The changing political alliances in the region may exacerbate existing conflicts, threaten governance within Somalia, and provoke Ethiopia’s response, ultimately affecting the geopolitical landscape throughout the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
