Hezbollah is at a significant crossroads after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, with Iranian officials reaffirming support during his funeral. Despite Israel’s recent military successes weakening the organization, Hezbollah aims to rebuild its military strength amid financial struggles. The group’s long-term prospects rely on leveraging political dynamics and restoring its influence in southern Lebanon and beyond, despite substantial challenges ahead.
Recent developments following the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah highlight Iran’s ongoing expectations for Hezbollah. Senior Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, engaged with Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, showcasing Iran’s commitment to Hezbollah amid tensions with Israel that have weakened the latter since the recent conflict period from September to November 2024.
The funeral on February 23, symbolized Hezbollah’s resilience, drawing an estimated 200,000 pro-Iranian supporters, mostly from Iraq. Sheikh Naim Qassem delivered a pre-recorded speech, asserting Hezbollah’s continuous resistance despite recent losses, including the deaths of both Nasrallah and his successor, Hisham Safieddine, who were buried together.
Qassem’s strong statements raise questions regarding Hezbollah’s intentions to restore its military capabilities against Israel. However, uncertainty looms regarding whether the group can prioritize rebuilding its arsenal effectively, given the significant losses it has suffered during recent confrontations that have also strained its financial resources.
Financial challenges now plague Hezbollah as they struggle to pay their fighters amidst losses of personnel and equipment. The organization also faces ongoing Israeli operations targeting Hezbollah members and strategic positions along the border, further complicating its ability to maintain control over southern Lebanon, recently exemplified by an attack on a UN convoy near Beirut.
Despite these obstacles, analysts note that Hezbollah remains the most powerful armed faction in Lebanon, arguably undermining state sovereignty while attributing its challenges to external factors. The group’s financial turmoil could weaken it long-term; however, its dominance in the security landscape appears largely intact at present.
Hezbollah’s main objective is to reestablish its southern Lebanese presence and rebuild its weapons stockpile, a process projected to take years. The organization has previously faced similar challenges, notably post-2006 conflict, where it replenished its arsenal from approximately 13,000 projectiles to around 200,000 by 2023, suggesting its resilience in military recovery efforts.
Although Hezbollah is believed to retain some 10,000 to 20,000 rockets, along with drone assembly capabilities, logistical challenges persist due to the loss of support from the Assad regime in Syria. Ensuring the resumption of smuggling routes through southern Syria will be crucial as Israel’s airstrikes increase, inhibiting Assad’s forces.
Amidst these developments, Hezbollah’s strategy may involve leveraging political dynamics in Lebanon and neighboring regions. Notably, the recent communication between Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi could offer further insights into opportunities that Hezbollah might pursue in the coming period.
Hezbollah faces significant challenges following the deaths of key leaders and recent military setbacks against Israel. While the group remains a formidable force within Lebanon, its financial instability and diminished arsenal raise concerns about its long-term viability. Moving forward, Hezbollah’s strategy will likely focus on rebuilding its military capacities and navigating political dynamics in the region, especially in light of international engagements that may shape its operational capabilities.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
