Since 2008, floods have caused over 185 million internal displacements globally, with Africa experiencing approximately 29 million such displacements. A new flood displacement risk model developed for Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia under the HABITABLE project aims to estimate future displacements through comprehensive vulnerability assessments and climate modeling. Projections indicate potential increases in average annual displacement, necessitating targeted policies to mitigate the impacts of flood-induced risks.
The report elucidates the concerning trend of internal displacements due to floods, emphasizing that over 185 million individuals have been forcibly displaced within their countries globally since 2008. In Africa, the number of flood-related displacements reached approximately 29 million from 2008 to 2022, marking the continent as the second most affected region. The focus of the study is on the Horn of Africa, particularly the countries of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. To address the challenges posed by flood-induced displacements, a pioneering flood displacement risk model has been developed under Work Package 3 of the HABITABLE project. This model aims to offer precise forecasts of future displacements, thereby assisting policymakers in crafting effective intervention strategies. The methodology utilized in this framework employs a comprehensive vulnerability assessment that factors in elements typically overlooked in conventional risk assessments. These elements encompass both direct impacts on infrastructure and livelihoods, as well as indirect repercussions on essential services and facilities. Through a probabilistic approach that merges climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modelling, the study seeks to quantify the impacts that may lead to displacement. The findings reveal alarming projections of average annual displacement (AAD). Under various climate scenarios, the AAD may increase by two to four times compared to the present situation; furthermore, the most pessimistic scenarios suggest AAD may surge by as much as ninefold, particularly in Sudan. The insights gained from this study could significantly enhance national and subnational disaster risk reduction initiatives by pinpointing regions most susceptible to extensive displacements. Consequently, policymakers can utilize this critical data to formulate risk-informed strategies aimed at preventing or mitigating the adverse effects of displacement. In closing, the report advocates for the formulation of comprehensive policies and strategies that directly tackle the risks associated with flood-induced displacements, underscoring the necessity to safeguard vulnerable populations affected by such natural disasters.
The phenomenon of internal displacement due to natural disasters, particularly floods, has become increasingly prevalent across the globe. The implications for Africa are particularly severe, as the continent records a significant proportion of these displacements. Understanding the complexities of displacement risks, such as the influences of climate change and environmental degradation, is essential for effective policy formulation. The introduction of a novel flood displacement risk model aims to enhance the understanding of these risks in the Horn of Africa, particularly for the countries of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, thus contributing to more targeted and effective disaster risk management strategies.
In summary, the report emphasizes the urgent need to address the growing risk of flood-induced displacements within Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia. With the potential for significant increases in average annual displacement projected under various climate scenarios, it is imperative for policymakers to rely on accurate data and sophisticated models to inform their strategies. Comprehensive policies designed to mitigate the impacts of displacement will be essential in protecting vulnerable communities from the adverse effects of flooding.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
