This report investigates the prevalence of internal displacements caused by flooding in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, revealing over 185 million displacements globally since 2008. It introduces a new flood displacement risk model aimed at enhancing policy formulation and employing unique vulnerability assessments. The findings indicate a potential two to fourfold increase in average annual displacement rates under varying climate scenarios, emphasizing the necessity for informed disaster risk reduction strategies to protect affected communities.
The report examines the alarming trend of internal displacements due to flooding in the Horn of Africa, specifically in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Since 2008, floods have caused over 185 million internal displacements worldwide, with Africa accounting for approximately 29 million of these instances—placing it as the second most affected continent. Introducing a new flood displacement risk model developed as part of the HABITABLE project, the study aims to provide more precise forecasts of future displacements, pivotal in shaping effective policy responses. Utilizing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment, the model addresses impacts typically neglected in standard risk evaluations, such as the repercussions on housing, livelihoods, and essential services. A probabilistic framework is employed, integrating climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling to analyze displacement triggers. The findings articulate displacement risks through metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) and probable maximum displacement, revealing a projected AAD increase of two to four times compared to current figures under various climate scenarios, with Sudan facing potentially escalated risks up to ninefold under pessimistic projections. This valuable output can guide both national and subnational disaster risk reduction initiatives, pinpointing regions susceptible to significant displacements. Authorities are encouraged to leverage this critical information for implementing risk-informed strategies that prevent and alleviate the repercussions of flooding-induced displacements. The report culminates in recommendations for comprehensive policies and strategies designed to mitigate flood-related displacement risks and safeguard affected communities.
Flooding poses a significant challenge in many parts of the world, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Horn of Africa, which has been notably impacted by both natural disasters and climate change. This region has seen an alarming rate of internal displacements, prompting the development of models aimed at predicting future displacements and aiding policymakers in addressing these severe humanitarian issues. The HABITABLE project’s flood displacement risk model is tailored to account for various factors contributing to displacement, enhancing our understanding of these dynamics and providing a foundation for strategic interventions.
In conclusion, the report underscores the critical issue of flood-induced displacements in the Horn of Africa, highlighting the urgent need for accurate predictive models to inform policy decisions. The new flood displacement risk model is an essential tool for understanding potential future movements and their underlying causes, thereby equipping decision-makers with the information necessary to address the challenges posed by flooding effectively. The proposed strategies and recommendations underscore the importance of comprehensive policies that prioritize the protection of vulnerable populations in the face of increasing displacement risks.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
