The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkiye faces its first significant test amid the ongoing crisis over the Central Bank of Libya. With Sadiq Al-Kabir’s removal causing a political and economic upheaval, both nations, historically aligned with opposing factions, may need to collaborate to stabilize Libya, which is critical to their regional interests. Their ability to navigate this complex situation could redefine their diplomatic relationship and impact wider Gulf security dynamics.
The recent thaw in relations between Egypt and Turkiye, highlighted by the visits of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Cairo and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to Istanbul, marks a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics following a decade-long rift. However, the detente is now facing its first critical challenge amid the crisis stemming from the Central Bank of Libya. This situation necessitates international mediation, given the historical opposition in Libya where both Egypt and Turkiye have supported rival factions. The resignation of Sadiq Al-Kabir, who had governed the Central Bank since 2011, at the request of Libya’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has exacerbated tensions. Al-Kabir has sought refuge in Turkiye, claiming threats from militias associated with the Tripoli government. This political maneuvering is indicative of the increasing instability in Libya, especially as the Benghazi-based Libyan National Army and the House of Representatives have opposed the decision, leading to a shutdown of oil output, a vital resource for the country’s economy. Libya, home to Africa’s largest oil reserves and ranking ninth globally, relies heavily on its oil revenues for economic stability. Almost 90% of these reserves are located in the eastern Sirte basin, significantly influencing the power dynamics of the nation. The recent halt in oil supply has understandably prompted international concern, as rising energy prices and potential economic crises loom due to decreased oil revenues. The advisory from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, cautioning banks against engaging with the Libyan central bank until a proper government is reinstated, threatens to isolate Libya from global financial systems, complicating its capacity to procure essential goods. This economic instability is particularly alarming for Egypt, given its vested interest in maintaining security along its extensive border with Libya. The shared geopolitical interests of Egypt and Turkiye may compel both nations to intervene collaboratively in Libya. Historically, Egypt has allied with General Haftar’s forces while Turkiye has backed the Tripoli government. However, the current landscape necessitates both countries to put aside their differences and pursue a cooperative approach to stabilize the oil-rich nation, which has far-reaching implications for their own national security and economic welfare. In doing so, both countries are not only looking to alleviate the instability in Libya but are also focused on their respective economic benefits. The ongoing crisis presents an urgent need for Egypt and Turkiye to engage with Libyan factions, resolving the leadership dispute to restore essential oil supplies and prevent further economic decline.
The relations between Egypt and Turkiye have historically been strained due to their support for conflicting parties in the Libyan civil conflict. As a major player in postconflict reconstruction, Egypt has been invested in western Libya, while Turkiye has maintained a strong presence in the government of National Unity based in Tripoli. Recent bilateral meetings between the leaders of these nations signal a potential shift as they confront the crises in Libya that threaten their regional stability and economic interests. The unraveling situation in Libya, aggravated by leadership disputes and halted oil production, casts a shadow over the newfound cooperation, compelling both countries to navigate their complicated allegiances and foster dialogue towards a unified resolution.
In conclusion, the Egypt-Turkiye detente represents a remarkable potential for regional stability in light of the ongoing Libyan crisis. While both countries possess a historical record of supporting opposing factions, this situation necessitates a cooperative engagement focused on re-establishing order and economic integrity in Libya. The upcoming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether their diplomatic efforts can yield fruitful outcomes, thereby solidifying their roles as key stabilizers in an increasingly volatile Middle Eastern landscape.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
