Negotiators from the US, Turkiye, Syria, and the Kurdish-led SDF are engaging in discussions regarding the status of Kurdish fighters in Syria. The focus is on integrating these forces under a new Syrian defense ministry while preserving the SDF’s military structure. The outcomes are contingent on US policy under President Trump and Turkiye’s military ambitions against the YPG. Failure to achieve a political resolution may lead to further instability in the region, raising concerns about Kurdish autonomy and associated territorial management.
Negotiators from the United States, Turkiye, Syria, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are working towards a resolution regarding the status of Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria. While public statements may suggest a lack of flexibility, insiders indicate ongoing discussions may lead to some Kurdish forces being integrated under a new Syrian defense ministry. Key areas of negotiation include how to incorporate the SDF’s fighters into Syria’s security system and manage the territories they control, particularly vital oil and wheat regions.
SDF commander, Mazloum Abdi, has outlined the alliance’s preference for a decentralized administration which poses a challenge to Syria’s new leadership, which seeks to re-establish control after the ousting of Bashar Assad. Abdi has expressed openness to coordinating with the new defense ministry while maintaining the SDF’s military identity. However, the new Syrian defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, dismissed the notion that the SDF can remain a unified military entity.
The future of Kurdish autonomy appears contingent upon US President Donald Trump’s stance towards Kurdish allies, especially with approximately 2,000 US troops present in the region. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s intent regarding a potential military offensive against Kurdish forces, specifically the People’s Protection Units (YPG), further complicates matters, as Turkiye categorizes the YPG as an extension of the terrorist PKK organization.
Intensive discussions have been ongoing amidst the recent upheaval following Assad’s removal from power, leading to the rise of rebel groups like Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). The US and Turkiye share common goals regarding the withdrawal of foreign fighters and a need for Syria’s stability as negotiations unfold. Despite the urgency, the complexities of these negotiations may extend their timeline significantly.
The Kurdish factions, which have gained control in the wake of the Syrian conflict, now face renewed vulnerability with Turkiye-backed armed groups making territorial advances in northeastern Syria. A failure to reach a comprehensive accord may result in further destabilization and complicate ongoing efforts against the PKK insurgency in Turkiye, as UN officials have warned of dire consequences if a political resolution is not achieved.
Turkiye has expressed the necessity for the management of Daesh detainees’ camps to shift to the newly formed Syrian government, alongside demands for SDF disarmament and the expulsion of foreign fighters. In response, Abdi has signaled a willingness to remove foreign elements from SDF ranks, contingent on a truce. However, assurances regarding Kurdish control in the northeast must be established to satisfy Ankara’s requirements.
As the new Syrian leadership, backed by Turkiye, seeks to eliminate the SDF’s semi-autonomy, they are pushing to assert control over key regions and resources previously held by the SDF. There is a potential for mutual concessions where Kurdish factions may receive cultural protections while relinquishing some territory and resources in a restructured governance framework.
The US remains invested in a managed transition for the SDF’s role following Assad’s downfall, although future troop presence in Syria will rely heavily on sustained Kurdish engagement against Daesh. Trump’s anticipated return to office raises speculation that he may strike a favorable deal with Erdogan, given their previous rapport, yet it introduces unpredictability regarding the SDF’s future in the region.
Given the precarious situation, both Kurdish leaders and international observers are seeking clarity on Turkey’s military strategy, the fate of Kurdish forces, potential US troop withdrawal, and the ramifications of these negotiations on both local and regional stability.
The ongoing negotiations in Syria involve multiple stakeholders, including the US, Turkiye, the new Syrian government, and the Kurdish-led SDF. The SDF emerged as a key partner for the US in combating Daesh during the Syrian civil war. With the shift in power dynamics following Assad’s downfall, the SDF faces challenges regarding its governance role and military autonomy as Turkiye pressures for more centralized control under the new regime. The Kurdish population in Syria has historically struggled for autonomy, and recent clashes in the region underline the ongoing tensions surrounding their future. Turkiye’s long-standing concerns regarding Kurdish autonomy stem from its conflict with the PKK, a designated terrorist group, and its fear that Kurdish gains in Syria may embolden separatist sentiments within its borders. The US’s support for the SDF complicates relations with Turkiye, which demands significant adjustments from the SDF as a precondition for stabilizing the region. Amidst these complications, any resolution will need to navigate a delicate balance between local governance, stability, and territorial integrity.
In summary, the negotiations surrounding Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria hinge on a multi-faceted interplay of local autonomy ambitions, international support dynamics, and geopolitical interests. A potential resolution demands compromises on both sides, particularly in resource management and security arrangements, while Turkey’s stance remains pivotal in shaping the future role of the SDF. The coming months may prove crucial in determining whether a stable political settlement can be achieved or if the region will continue to face escalated tensions and violence. With the ongoing complexities, the responses from key actors, particularly the US and Turkiye, will hold significant influence over the fate of Kurdish factions and the broader stability of Syria.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
