The ouster of Assad has ended Iran’s influence over Lebanon, allowing for potential normalization between the two states. The historical context of Syrian dominance in Lebanon since the 1970s is examined. Following Assad’s regime collapse, many Lebanese analysts express hope for a new era of increased sovereignty, diminished Iranian control, and the possibility of rebuilding state institutions.
The removal of Syrian President Bashar Assad from power has paved the way for potential normalization of relations between Lebanon and Syria, a historical shift welcomed by many Lebanese analysts and citizens alike. Following Assad’s ouster on December 8, the longstanding Iranian influence and control over Lebanon, which persisted for decades, has entered a state of decline. For years, Lebanese society endured the consequences of Syria’s military presence and its political interference that severely disrupted Lebanon’s governance and stability.
Syria’s military forces first entered Lebanon in 1976 to help mitigate the civil conflict that had erupted earlier that year. However, instead of quickly retreating, they established a prolonged presence that transformed into a dominant position by the early 1990s following the civil war’s conclusion. Formally under the terms of the Taef Accord, Syria was responsible for aiding the Lebanese government in asserting its authority and ultimately expected to withdraw troops within two years. This withdrawal was delayed until significant political pressure emerged, notably after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, for which Syria faced accusations.
Previously, Syria bolstered its Lebanese allies, most notably Hezbollah, but the winding down of Assad’s regime signals a critical juncture for Lebanese sovereignty. As the remnants of Syria’s influence dissipate, former Lebanese ambassador Riad Tabbarah emphasized that the scope of Syrian intervention in Lebanon is unlikely to return in the near term. He remarked that the ongoing Syrian revolution necessitates a reconstruction of the country’s political and military landscape, signifying a shift in regional power dynamics.
Political and social activist Makram Rabah underscored the regime’s deceptive claims to protect minority populations, stating the Syrian leadership has historically caused immense suffering among various groups. As Syria’s new leadership emerges under Ahmad Sharaa, the expectation is for this administration to respect Lebanese sovereignty and engage in cooperative relations. Rabah remarked regarding Sharaa’s approach, “What is happening is a return to normal.”
The political implications of Assad’s fall extend beyond Lebanon’s borders, impacting the Iranian and Russian alliances in the region. The operational effectiveness of Hezbollah is now in question, with their reliance on Iranian support rendered precarious by the new reality in Syria. Rabah asserted that estimating the transformations within Syria’s governance is pivotal for understanding future interactions concerning Lebanon. The prevailing consensus among Lebanese officials points towards a longing to rebuild state institutions free from Syrian dominance, fostering a new era of potential independence and agency for Lebanon.
The article explores the geopolitical ramifications of the ousting of Syrian President Bashar Assad, highlighting the significant changes in Lebanese-Syrian relations. It outlines Syria’s historical involvement in Lebanon from the 1976 civil war through to Assad’s regime, emphasizing the adverse effects of this intervention on Lebanon’s political landscape and societal stability. It also addresses the implications of Syria’s ongoing revolution on regional powers, particularly focusing on the dynamics of Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s role within Lebanon.
In conclusion, the fall of Assad represents a historic opportunity to redefine Lebanese-Syrian relations, with implications that may foster greater political independence for Lebanon. As Syria restructures, the gradual decline of Iranian influence and restraint from the new leadership in Syria could facilitate a much-needed normalization process. Ultimately, while uncertainties persist regarding Syria’s political future, the prevailing sentiment among Lebanese analysts is one of cautious optimism, advocating for a return to sovereign affairs devoid of outside interference.
Original Source: www.upi.com
