Turkey has supplanted Iran as the principal foreign power in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s downfall. This shift reflects a long-standing rivalry, with Turkey pursuing interests against Kurdish forces and Iran’s diminishing influence. Although Turkey’s role is expanding, potential avenues for cooperation with Iran remain, particularly regarding shared adversaries and regional dynamics. The Kurdish issue continues to complicate the landscape.
The Syrian civil war has resulted in significant geopolitical shifts, primarily enhancing Turkey’s influence in Syria while diminishing Iran’s role. Following the ascendancy of Ankara-backed factions and the defeat of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has asserted itself as the primary foreign actor, challenging the long-standing regional aspirations of Iran and its ally, Russia. This transformation has intensified an ongoing rivalry that has spanned the South Caucasus and into the Levant.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria stems from its three fundamental concerns: combating the Kurdish forces, enabling the return of Syrian refugees, and thwarting any further refugee influx into Turkey. On the other hand, Iran has historically relied on Assad’s regime to facilitate its support for allied groups such as Hezbollah. Although the shift in influence favors Turkey, analysts suggest that it does not necessarily imply a significant deterioration in Turkish-Iranian relations.
The current situation in Syria, governed largely by the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, poses challenges for both Turkey and Iran. Turkey could potentially strengthen its Mediterranean positioning through new maritime agreements with the regime in Damascus. However, the regional dynamics remain complex, with Iran likely seeking to regain influence through local actors, especially in the face of perceived Turkish encroachments.
The United States’ withdrawal of troop support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has further complicated matters, granting Turkey an opportunity to challenge Kurdish authority in northern Syria. The changing allegiances within the Syrian landscape could lead to substantial shifts, particularly for Kurdish groups who may be compelled to negotiate with actors hostile to their autonomy. Indeed, this environment continues to evolve as the respective interests of Turkey, Iran, and other regional players unfold.
The longstanding conflict in Syria has created a battleground for foreign influence, particularly between Turkey and Iran. Following the Syrian civil war’s onset in 2011, Turkey’s support for rebel factions opposed to Bashar al-Assad has fundamentally altered the regional power dynamics. Meanwhile, Iran’s strategy has historically depended on maintaining Assad in power to secure its interests in the Levant. The fall of Assad’s regime marked a critical juncture that shifted the balance of power in favor of Turkey, challenging Iran’s foothold in the region. Moreover, the rivalry has significant implications beyond Syria, affecting relations and power structures within the South Caucasus and broader Middle Eastern geopolitics. The complexities of this situation underscore the interdependent interests of regional actors as they navigate emerging dynamics following Assad’s decline.
In conclusion, the geopolitical landscape in Syria has shifted dramatically, with Turkey emerging as the dominant foreign power at the expense of Iran and Russia. While Turkey’s influence appears to grow, the interactions between these nations could yield cooperative ventures despite underlying tensions. The Kurdish question remains pivotal within this context, as Turkey exploits the changing allegiances to further its objectives. As the situation develops, the balance of power and regional stability will depend on the actions and alliances established by these influential actors.
Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com
