Analysts suggest Israel is likely to take military action against Iran amid the U.S. election distractions, following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel. The election period, specifically prior to November 5, 2024, presents an opportunity for Israel to act with perceived impunity, as U.S. foreign policy may become less assertive during this time. This assessment highlights the interaction between domestic electoral politics and international military dynamics.
Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Israel is reportedly preparing to take military action against Iran, capitalizing on the distraction provided by the forthcoming U.S. elections. Analysts suggest that Iran’s recent missile attacks, reportedly numbering up to 200, against Israel were provoked by long-standing grievances, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the escalation of violence in Gaza and Lebanon, allegedly aided by U.S. support. As Israel gears up for a response, fears of an all-out conflict escalate, especially in light of Iran’s threat of a more potent retaliation should Israel strike back. The context of these developments is critical; the United States is in the midst of an election period, culminating on November 5, where Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are the primary contenders. Analysts like Beni Sabti from The Institute for National Security Studies argue that Israel is likely to exploit this period of American preoccupation to engage in military actions against Iran without facing immediate repercussions from Washington: “Israel will use this time—while the U.S. is busy with itself and the election—to hit Iran, while the U.S. is not warning or stopping it.” Furthermore, Michael Pregent from the Hudson Institute points out that historically, nations often take advantage of such election cycles, which lead to a temporary lapse in U.S. foreign policy assertiveness. He speculates that Israeli operations will persist into the lame duck session post-election, as Israel aims to maximize its military engagement before the new administration takes office. Feryal Cherif from Loyola Marymount University posits that U.S. elections typically embolden allies like Israel, as during election years, U.S. administrations may prioritize domestic issues over foreign diplomatic pressures. This dynamic may lead to increased military aggressiveness from Israel as it gauges its security interests relative to the electoral outcomes in the U.S. The Biden administration has expressed a dual approach of support for Israel while cautioning against aggressions that might escalate into broader conflict, stating, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”
The ongoing hostility between Israel and Iran is underscored by long-standing ideological and geopolitical conflicts, particularly regarding the influence of Iran in the region and its support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The recent escalation in hostilities has seen Iran launching missile strikes and issuing threats in response to Israeli actions perceived as aggressive. The added complexity of the forthcoming U.S. elections introduces uncertainties regarding U.S. foreign policy, with both candidates possessing differing attitudes towards engagements in the Middle East. Understanding this geopolitical landscape is critical to grasping the implications of Israel’s possible military actions against Iran within the context of U.S. electoral dynamics.
In summary, analysts predict that Israel may utilize the current U.S. electoral season to launch military operations against Iran, anticipating minimal intervention from an American administration preoccupied with national issues. As tensions rise, with Iran ramping up missile attacks and threatening retaliation, experts believe that the election cycle creates a conducive environment for Israel to act decisively in its national interest. This situation reflects the broader implications of how domestic politics in the U.S. can inadvertently influence foreign military decisions among its allies in the Middle East.
Original Source: www.newsweek.com
