Ethiopia and Somalia have purportedly settled a dangerous feud that nearly escalated into a crisis, with potential military conflicts brewing as alliances shifted. The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia was threatened, while Ethiopia considered supporting factions against the Somali government. Concerns persist regarding the possibility of proxy wars and security vacuums that could be exploited by extremist groups like al-Shabab.
Ethiopia and Somalia recently announced that they have resolved their escalating feud, which had been on the verge of crisis for several months. In June, tensions rose sharply when Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops who were pivotal in combating the al-Shabab jihadist group. By October, Somalia had forged a military alliance with Egypt and Eritrea, adversaries of Ethiopia, while Ethiopian military officials were publicly contemplating support for factions opposed to the Somali government. This escalation led to concerns that the conflict could ignite proxy warfare and draw in surrounding nations, potentially creating a security void in Somalia that al-Shabab could exploit.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia can be traced back to a variety of historical, political, and military factors. Ethiopia has actively supported Somalia in its battle against al-Shabab, however, the presence of Ethiopian troops has often been viewed with suspicion by Somali leadership. Furthermore, the formation of alliances between Somalia and Ethiopia’s rivals, namely Egypt and Eritrea, intensifies the regional power dynamics and raises alarms about the potential for significant military confrontations.
The claim of a resolution between Ethiopia and Somalia regarding their intense feud appears to be met with skepticism. Given the historical context and recent military maneuvers, observers remain cautious. The potential for conflict escalation exists, as regional alliances continue to shift, leaving room for further volatility in a region already challenged by extremist groups.
Original Source: www.economist.com
