A preliminary study indicates that climate change intensified Cyclone Chido as it approached Mayotte, making it the most destructive storm to hit the region in 90 years. The study revealed a 40% increase in the likelihood of similar cyclones due to global warming, which has raised wind speeds and cyclone intensity.
Recent assessments conducted by scientists at Imperial College London have revealed that climate change significantly increased the strength of Cyclone Chido as it approached the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte. This cyclone, classified as a category four storm, represented the most devastating weather event to strike Mayotte in nearly a century, with reports indicating that it left extensive damage to the region, particularly affecting makeshift shelters inhabited by a considerable portion of the local population. The study also indicated that the likelihood of cyclones with similar intensity has risen by 40 percent in the current climate compared to the pre-industrial era.
The assessment leveraged sophisticated computer modeling techniques to simulate countless tropical cyclones and relate their attributes to recent climatic changes. This model suggested that wind speeds where Cyclone Chido made landfall were approximately three miles per second faster than would have been the case before the widespread use of fossil fuels began. Although France’s weather service cautiously refrains from definitively linking the cyclone’s intensity to climate change, it acknowledges that the warming of oceans due to human activity has been a contributing factor to the increasing severity of storms.
As the climate continues to warm—nearly 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer compared to the pre-industrial period—scientists note that this temperature increase contributes to more severe and frequent weather occurrences, as warmer air can retain more moisture, which enhances storm conditions. The exact extent of the damage is still being evaluated, and officials express concerns that the number of fatalities may eventually reach thousands.
Meteo-France has noted that the hurricane’s impact was strategically linked to its trajectory over the island, further highlighting the compounded effects of geophysical factors alongside climatic influences.
Cyclone Chido offers a stark illustration of the growing correlation between climate change and the intensity of tropical storms. As global temperatures rise, largely driven by human activity, the potential for more extreme weather events, such as cyclones, increases. Scientists are increasingly utilizing computer simulations to predict the potential impact of climate change on storm patterns in light of limited real-world data. Imperial College London’s study underscores the necessity of recognizing the role of anthropogenic climate change in exacerbating natural disasters, a trend which poses significant risks to vulnerable regions like Mayotte.
In summary, the evidence presented by the Imperial College London study highlights a concerning trend: climate change has intensified Cyclone Chido, with projections indicating a significant increase in the likelihood of similar future events. As researchers continue to explore the intricate relationship between global warming and tropical cyclone intensity, the implications for disaster preparedness and response in vulnerable regions must be taken into consideration. The tragedy of Cyclone Chido serves as a urgent reminder of the critical need to address climate change.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
