Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14 with winds over 200 km/h, leading to extreme rainfall and dangerous seas. It resulted in significant loss of life, prompting national mourning in France. Despite early warnings from Météo-France, the cyclone’s unusual path and intensity posed severe challenges. Chido also affected Mozambique with heavy rainfall following its landfall.
Tropical cyclone Chido made a devastating impact on Mayotte on December 14, registering wind speeds exceeding 200 km/h and gusts surpassing 225 km/h. Classified as the most severe cyclone to affect the island in over 90 years, the storm also brought torrential rain, accumulating 176 mm within just 12 hours, alongside perilous sea conditions with wave heights exceeding 5 meters. Notably, the cyclone’s intensity was so profound that it caused the destruction of Météo-France’s observational infrastructure.
In response to the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national day of mourning. Initial reports indicated that hundreds of lives may have been lost, amplifying the significance of the emergency and relief operations mobilized to assist the island’s population, which is not accustomed to such extreme cyclones and has many informal housing units.
Despite Météo-France issuing timely warnings—an amber alert 50 hours prior, followed by a red alert the evening of December 13 and an unprecedented violet alert on December 14—the heavy loss of life occurred. Chido took an atypical route, bypassing Madagascar, which could have weakened it, before making direct landfall in Mayotte as a formidable tropical cyclone.
Later, on December 15, Chido continued its path towards Mozambique, where it weakened but still delivered significant rainfall, impacting both Mozambique and Malawi. Météo-France stated that while the cyclone’s effects on Mayotte were primarily correlated with its trajectory and direct hit, the influence of climate change on the storm’s intensity remains indeterminate. They detailed that this rare event has not been observed in nearly a century and cautioned against drawing conclusive correlations with climate change.
Furthermore, Météo-France, which acts as the WMO’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the South-West Indian Ocean, had predicted an early start to the 2024-2025 cyclone season in its forecast released on October 31. The outlook estimated normal to above-normal activity, anticipating between nine to thirteen systems this season, of which four to seven are expected to escalate to tropical cyclone status.
In recent years, the southwestern Indian Ocean has faced escalating tropical cyclone activity, raising concerns about the preparedness of smaller islands like Mayotte. Cyclones typically form under specific meteorological conditions, where both warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear are present. Météo-France has been instrumental in monitoring weather patterns in this region, providing vital forecasts and warnings for potentially dangerous weather events. However, the increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones have provoked discussions regarding climate change and its implications for future cyclone activity and track predictions. Understanding the nuances of these meteorological developments is crucial for improving response measures and safeguarding affected populations.
Tropical cyclone Chido’s unprecedented impact on Mayotte signifies a serious threat posed by extreme weather events in the context of climate variability. Despite advanced warnings, the island suffered extensive damages and loss of life, highlighting the vulnerabilities of informal housing structures in cyclone-prone areas. The event has sparked further investigation into the relationship between climate change and cyclone behavior, as Météo-France prepares for the potential challenges of an approaching cyclone season in the southwest Indian Ocean. A proactive approach to disaster management and infrastructure resilience is vital to mitigate future impacts.
Original Source: wmo.int
