Amid increased military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, tensions may arise as Ethiopia enters into agreements with Somaliland, potentially transforming Somalia into a battleground for these two regional powers. Despite the risk of confrontation, experts suggest that diplomatic efforts are likely to prevail over warfare due to the intricate political landscape and external influences in the region.
Recent developments suggest Somalia may become a focal point of increasing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Growing military and security collaboration between Cairo and Mogadishu has led to speculation regarding Somalia’s potential role as a proxy battleground in this conflict. An Egyptian vessel recently delivered military supplies, including artillery and anti-aircraft weapons, marking the second such consignment to Somalia within a month. Tensions escalated earlier this year when Ethiopia entered an agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region, to develop a military base in exchange for the recognition of Somaliland’s independence, a move perceived by Somalia as a breach of its sovereignty. Ethiopia has since warned Egypt that its military activities in Somalia would elicit a response, while Egypt has expressed its readiness to protect its interests in the region. The geopolitics of the Horn of Africa have intensified, fueled by Ethiopia’s urgent need for access to the sea, which the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has characterized as an “existential matter.” Ethiopia’s actions have prompted Somalia to seek firm alliances, particularly with Egypt, which has a vested interest in countering Ethiopia’s ambitions, especially concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The alignment between Egypt and Somalia solidified with the recent signing of a defense agreement, including military training and support for Somalia’s security forces. This partnership could enable Egypt to strengthen its influence in Somalia while providing Mogadishu with much-needed military resources to address domestic security challenges. While there is speculation about a confrontation on Somali territory, analysts suggest this outcome remains unlikely, given the delicate situations faced by both Egypt and Ethiopia, along with regional diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation. Influential actors, like Turkey, are reportedly mediating between the conflicting nations, reducing the likelihood of direct military confrontation. The ongoing instability in Somalia, exacerbated by its long-standing internal challenges, complicates these dynamics further. Both Egypt and Ethiopia appear to be vying for influence within Somalia through non-military means. Egypt’s backing of the Somali government’s security efforts and its engagement in peacekeeping missions contrast with Ethiopia’s outreach to semi-autonomous regions, seeking relationships that could circumvent the central authority in Mogadishu. Additionally, rising public sentiment within Somalia against foreign military presence could hinder Egypt’s efforts. Ultimately, while the landscape remains fraught with potential conflict, the emphasis on intelligence, military training, and forming regional alliances may shape the outcome of this strategic rivalry without devolving into direct armed confrontation.
The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa has been marked by heightened tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly concerning water security and territorial interests. The signing of a memorandum between Ethiopia and Somaliland regarding military cooperation stirred significant unrest in Somalia, which views such acts as infringement on its sovereignty. Egypt, in response, has increased its military support to Somalia, a nation struggling with internal challenges and security threats from groups like Al-Shabab. With Ethiopia’s ambitions for coastal access arising in tandem with these shifting alliances, the historical context of Somalia’s fragility and external interventions complicates the political dynamics of the region.
In summary, while Somalia is becoming increasingly positioned as a potential battleground between Egypt and Ethiopia due to emerging alliances and military support, both nations are likely to pursue influence through strategic partnerships and diplomatic engagement rather than outright conflict. The complexities of the region’s historical context, coupled with external mediation efforts, may prevent a direct military confrontation, although competition for influence will undoubtedly persist, shaping Somalia’s future inordinately.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
