In Portugal’s recent general election, the ruling AD claimed victory with 32.7% of the vote but fell short of a majority. The far-right Chega party increased its support significantly, capturing 22.6%. Concerns are mounting about ongoing political instability, the effects of rising immigration, and a housing crisis, following a history of fragile governments.
Portugal’s Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged as the leading party in Sunday’s general election, but it once again failed to secure a parliamentary majority. With nearly complete official results in, the AD received 32.7% of the vote while the Socialists garnered 23.4%. Notably, the far-right Chega party saw a significant increase in support, capturing 22.6% of the ballots, just as four seats remain unallocated in the nation’s 230-seat parliament.
The AD’s performance marks a decrease from its 29% of the vote in the prior year’s election. Unfortunately for the ruling party, its minority government collapsed earlier this year following a failed confidence vote. Luis Montenegro, who leads the AD and currently serves as prime minister, has dismissed the prospect of forming a coalition with Chega, despite their rising popularity.
The pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL) is projected to obtain between 4% and 8% of the vote. Thus, the AD will likely need to negotiate with smaller parties in order to reach a majority of at least 116 seats in the parliament. The potential for a second consecutive minority government raises concerns about political stability in Portugal, which is contending with significant political turmoil, the worst in decades.
This recent election represents Portugal’s third in just three years. The call for Sunday’s vote came merely one year into Montenegro’s government after he failed to secure a confidence vote in March; the confidence vote arose due to opposition scrutiny over his family’s consultancy firm dealings. While Montenegro has denied any inappropriate conduct, many polls indicated that voters largely disregarded the opposition’s claims.
One intriguing aspect of the election was the performance of the Chega party, which seems set to exceed pre-election expectations of 18%. Despite health challenges faced by its leader Andre Ventura, including two hospitalizations for esophageal spasms, the party maintained its forward momentum. Ventura even made a surprise appearance at a final campaign event last Friday, energizing supporters.
In the previous election, Chega dramatically increased its parliamentary representation from 12 to 50 seats, largely attributed to its calls for stricter immigration policies. This year’s political discourse has been heavily influenced by issues surrounding housing and immigration, with the latter topic gaining prominence amid a decade of unstable governments in Portugal.
Data reveals that Portugal experienced a significant upsurge in immigration, from fewer than 500,000 legal immigrants in 2018 to over 1.5 million by early 2025, with many newcomers from Brazil and Asia joining the workforce, particularly in tourism and agriculture. Additionally, the government recently announced plans to expel approximately 18,000 undocumented individuals just weeks before the election.
Portugal is also grappling with a housing crisis characterized by soaring prices and rents over the past decade, driven in part by an influx of affluent foreigners. The National Statistics Institute reported house prices surged by 9% in the past year, while rents in Lisbon reached their most significant increase in 30 years, surging more than 7%. This housing predicament is exacerbated by Portugal’s economic status as one of Western Europe’s poorest nations, with last year’s average monthly salary around €1,200 ($1,340) before taxes and a government-set minimum wage of €870 ($974) in the current year.
In conclusion, Portugal’s recent elections revealed the ruling Democratic Alliance’s struggle for a parliamentary majority and the growing influence of the far-right Chega party. Political instability looms as the AD must navigate its way through potential coalitions while responding to pressing issues such as immigration and housing. With ongoing challenges, the prospects for a stable government remain uncertain in the face of a shifting political landscape.
Original Source: www.dw.com
