The Al-Shabab militia in Somalia is regaining control and posing threats after recent setbacks for the government. An assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signifies the group’s resurgence. Analysts highlight diminishing international support, particularly from the United States, as a concern contributing to the government’s struggle. While some argue that Al-Shabab’s advancements are opportunistic, others suggest a grinding conflict dynamic may be more appropriate than imminent capture of the capital.
The Al-Shabab militia in Somalia is showing signs of resurgence by regaining control of strategic areas and posing renewed threats, including a recent assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with a roadside bomb. Following a period of retreat due to military efforts in 2022 and 2023, analysts now indicate a reversal, expressing concerns regarding the diminishing support from the United States and the African Union.
In Middle and Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabab has taken control of crucial locations, enhancing its presence around the capital, Mogadishu. Reports of a bomb blast that nearly targeted the presidential convoy on March 18 further highlight the threat posed by the group. Recent developments include claims from Somali officials that Al-Shabab captured the center of Masaajid Cali Gaduud shortly after the president’s visit aimed at combating their influence.
Abdulkadi Hassan, a village resident, revealed the intense conflict, stating that local defense forces and militias have retreated, allowing Al-Shabab to dominate the town. Matt Bryden, a conflict analyst, noted the government’s loss of critical strategic points, asserting that “we see the evidence of an army in disarray and in retreat,” as the military tries to bolster its efforts through various local forces.
Despite the challenges, President Mohamud has remained resolute, asserting the government will not retreat from its current position and expressing confidence in eventual victory. However, the potential decrease in support from the international community looms large, with a downward trend in security assistance anticipated, particularly from the United States and possibly Europe, as highlighted by Bryden.
Contrarily, some experts assert that while Al-Shabab has gained ground, it is not a direct threat to Mogadishu. Omar Mahmood from the International Crisis Group emphasizes that the government’s distractions with political matters, including direct electoral initiatives, have allowed Al-Shabab to capitalize on local grievances. He maintains that the situation resembles a stalemate rather than an impending offensive towards the capital.
In conclusion, the resurgence of Al-Shabab in Somalia reflects significant challenges faced by the Somali government amidst waning international support. The conflict’s dynamics are marked by Al-Shabab’s regained control of strategic territories and the government’s increasing reliance on local militias. While Al-Shabab’s current actions pose a threat, some experts suggest that the situation reflects more a stalemate than an imminent conquest of Mogadishu. The governor’s commitment to maintaining positions can be pivotal in addressing these rising threats and restoring stability.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
