Tensions rise in Tigray as internal strife within the TPLF leads to a coup, with fear of renewed conflict spreading among residents. The ongoing geopolitical struggle between Ethiopia and Eritrea adds to the volatility. The need for dialogue and resolution is imperative to prevent further escalation of violence.
Aregawi, who had begun a tour-guiding business before the resurgence of conflict in Tigray, spent two years on the frontlines and is now fearful of an imminent return to war. He states, “We do not want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.”
The previous war between Tigray separatists and Ethiopia’s federal government concluded in 2022, resulting in approximately 600,000 fatalities and a surge of violence against women in the region. According to a study published in the British Medical Journal, nearly 10% of women aged 15 to 49 in Tigray reported being raped.
However, the lack of adherence to the ceasefire provisions, such as the repatriation of nearly one million displaced individuals, has led to divisions within the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Tensions intensified as Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, sought to replace three senior military officials, accusing them of attempting a coup.
In the aftermath, a faction led by the party chair, Debretsion Gebremichael, appeared to have executed a coup. Last week, they placed their officials in provincial offices, took control of the mayor’s office, and seized the main radio station in Mekelle, prompting Getachew to flee to Addis Ababa.
Recent violence in Tigray has resulted in fatalities, with three deaths in a skirmish, along with an earlier incident in Adi Gudem. Amid escalating fears, residents queued outside banks to withdraw cash, and the availability of flights out of the region rapidly diminished. One anonymous local shared, “Fear and uncertainty prevail,” as many plan to leave the region.
Amidst these tensions, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are deteriorating. Although they had allied in Tigray, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seeks to restore access to the Red Sea, a vital objective for the landlocked nation of 130 million people. He views the loss of access to Eritrea’s coastline as a “historical mistake.”
Eritrea is mobilizing its military and supporting rebel groups combating Ethiopia’s forces in the Amhara region. There are suggestions that Eritrean intelligence aided Debretsion’s TPLF faction during the coup. In response, Ethiopia has dispatched troops and tanks to its border with Eritrea.
Warnings of potential conflict have been voiced by Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, who cautioned that the region could revert to being a “battlefield.” Moreover, former US and EU special envoys perceive the situation as precarious, describing it as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war.”
Abiy has expressed a desire for peaceful negotiations regarding the port issue, asserting, “Ethiopia has no intention to invade Eritrea to gain Red Sea access.” He emphasized the need for dialogue centered on mutual benefits and legal frameworks. Following discussions with the rival Tigray factions, he appears to have withheld support for Getachew to avoid further conflict.
Tigray’s newly established leadership is eager to reclaim western Tigray, a region with lucrative resources seized during the conflict. Any moves to regain control could reignite hostilities, according to Ahmed Soliman from Chatham House. He notes, “The crux is how things evolve in Tigray and how Abiy responds. If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate.”
Recent developments in the Tigray region underline a potential resurgence of conflict as internal power struggles and external pressures mount. The divisions within the TPLF and tensions with Eritrea pose significant threats to stability. Furthermore, the urgent humanitarian situation necessitates clarity on governance and resource access. Leaders must navigate these challenges carefully to avoid escalating hostilities and to promote regional peace.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
