Recent developments in the Tigray region of Ethiopia highlight a power struggle within the TPLF, raising fears of a renewed conflict with Eritrea. The situation is complicated by historic animosities and ongoing military mobilization. Experts warn that without intervention, regional stability is at serious risk, potentially leading to widespread humanitarian crises and conflict escalation.
The current political unrest in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is escalating, with renewed fighting that heightens tensions with Eritrea. A faction within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) recently claimed control over a major radio station and the city of Adigrat, prompting accusations from interim leader Getachew Reda of collusion with Eritrea to destabilize the region. This rift indicates a potential re-ignition of conflict in an area already marred by civil war.
Tensions are further complicated by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s desire to dismantle the TPLF, stemming from a historical enmity after a brutal border war. Eritrean forces continue to occupy disputed border territories, despite international calls for withdrawal. Officials anticipate that military activity from Ethiopia could compel Eritrea to use Tigray as a buffer zone in the event of a possible invasion.
Amid this, dissatisfaction within the TPLF regarding the terms of a 2022 peace deal has led factions to regroup. The Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), previously neutral, are now showing support for TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. Allegations suggest that moving to control illegal gold mining operations could be a significant motive behind the TDF’s involvement in this power struggle
International concerns are growing, as experts caution that a wider conflict may engulf Sudan and destabilize the Sahel. This possibility is alarming, particularly given that the previous civil war claimed an estimated 600,000 lives and displaced millions, who still depend on humanitarian assistance. The United States remains deeply involved, providing significant aid to Ethiopia, yet challenges persist with disrupted humanitarian shipments during recent administrations.
The overall geopolitical landscape is increasingly precarious, as Ethiopia engages in negotiations with Somalia regarding access to the Red Sea, with growing fears of potential military engagements. Recent authoritative perspectives warn that the mobilization of forces from all sides demonstrates an imminent risk of armed conflict, which could have far-reaching, detrimental consequences for the entire region.
In summary, the internal power struggle within the TPLF presents a significant risk of escalating conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Key figures are accusing rival factions of collusion with Eritrean forces, which heightens tensions in an already volatile region. The possibility of renewed warfare poses severe humanitarian implications and risks destabilizing surrounding nations. Strong international engagement and effective conflict resolution measures are urgently required to avert a crisis of catastrophic proportions.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
