Civilians are evacuating Tigray amid fears of renewed conflict as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces bolster their military presence along the border, signaling deteriorating relations. Internal instability and a power struggle within the TPLF exacerbate the crisis, risking a broader regional conflict. The failure of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and competition for Red Sea access further deepen tensions, while regional geopolitical interests complicate the situation.
Civilians are fleeing Ethiopia’s Tigray region due to escalating fears of renewed conflict, as both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces augment their military presence along the border. This development signifies a drastic deterioration in relationships between the two countries, just two years following the end of the 2020-2022 Tigray War.
The renewed tensions are compounded by Ethiopia’s internal instability and a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), along with Eritrea’s efforts to maintain sovereignty. As political rifts widen, fears of a broader conflict increase, which could potentially embroil the larger Horn of Africa region.
Recent developments indicate that infighting among political factions of the TPLF, particularly between President Getachew Reda and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, has been fueled by Eritrean support towards TIRA. Following Reda’s appointment in May 2023, dissatisfaction within the TPLF has emerged as factions seek control over Tigray, further contributing to heightened tensions.
On March 11, violent clashes transpired, prompting Reda’s flight to Addis Ababa after attempts to arrest him by TPLF forces. The conflict has escalated, affecting key territories in Tigray, and generating mass civilian withdrawals alongside military mobilization across the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
Negotiations on March 17 resulted in General Tadesse Werede being appointed the TIRA leader; however, underlying tensions persist. Reports of renewed military mobilization and internal faction challenges indicate that the situation remains precarious, with large troop movements suggesting an imminent confrontation.
The implementation failures of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to stabilize the region post-conflict, have contributed to the current volatility. The agreement’s failure to achieve disarmament and recognition of the TPLF as a political entity reinforces the tension. Eritrea’s active interference further complicates the dynamics, undermining peace efforts.
Ethiopian aspirations for Red Sea access exacerbate the situation, framing Ethiopia’s historical claims as a source of tension with Eritrea. Recent agreements aimed at securing maritime access underscore this competitive relationship, as Eritrea perceives these ambitions as threats to its sovereignty.
Ethiopia’s military, overwhelmed by commitments in Amhara to address ethno-nationalist uprisings, may hesitate to pursue outright conflict with Eritrea. Should a full-scale war emerge, it could incite ethnic violence throughout the region, complicating an already convoluted instability.
The repercussions of instability in Tigray extend into regional dynamics. Ethiopia and Eritrea’s entanglement in Sudan’s civil conflict showcases their support for opposing factions, raising further concerns about stability, particularly in disputed territories that involve regional actors.
Geopolitical interests add layers of complexity, with recent regional developments including heightened caution from Saudi Arabia regarding Ethiopia’s military expansion and the UAE’s involvement in Tigray. Moreover, Iran and Russia appear intent on exploiting the circumstances to disrupt Western influence, contributing to the evolving crisis in the Horn of Africa.
The evolving conflict presents an opportunity for various jihadist groups, notably al-Shabaab, to augment their influence in the region, further destabilizing an already volatile situation. As tensions in Tigray intensify, Ethiopia’s domestic strife and broader geopolitical interests signal a pressing need for concerted regional coordination to avert a greater crisis.
The renewed tensions in Tigray pose significant risks for conflict escalation within the Horn of Africa. With both Eritrea and Ethiopia increasing their military presence and engaging in territorial power struggles, the potential for a broader confrontation looms. The failure of the Pretoria Agreement and the burgeoning instability within Ethiopia only intensify these dangers. The consequences of this conflict extend well beyond the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea, implicating regional stability and international geopolitical dynamics.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
