Renewed tensions in Tigray, marked by civilian flight and increased military presence from Eritrean and Ethiopian forces, signal a risk of escalating into broader conflict. Internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and delay in the Pretoria Agreement’s implementation exacerbate instability. The pursuit of Red Sea access by Ethiopia further complicates relations, raising concerns over regional spillover effects amid an already volatile Horn of Africa.
Civilians are fleeing Ethiopia’s Tigray region amid heightened military tensions, as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces amplify their presence along shared borders. Concerns are growing over a potential resurgence of conflict, primarily due to Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access and a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), supported by Eritrean forces. The implementation failures of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement have exacerbated divisions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, increasing the risk of escalation into broader regional warfare.
The renewed conflict is fueled by underlying political divisions within the TPLF, with rival factions led by President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael at odds. Eritrea’s support for TIRA has intensified internal rifts following Reda’s leadership appointment under the Pretoria Agreement, which has been criticized for its close ties to the Ethiopian federal government, undermining TPLF’s former dominance in the region.
Subsequent violence erupted in Tigray, marked by clashes on March 11 that forced Reda to flee after resisting arrest. Rival factions of TPLF are contesting control in significant towns, with reports of major territorial exchanges and parallel governance structures asserting authority. Increased military mobilization along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border indicates an imminent threat of armed confrontation.
Recent talks in Addis Ababa led to the appointment of General Tadesse Werede as the new TIRA leader; however, tensions persist as military factions regroup. The potential for a wider conflict looms large, particularly in light of significant troop movements reported from Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Tigrayan forces.
Since August, the landscape has shifted dramatically, with the TPLF establishing alternative governance within Tigray, spurred by the National Election Board’s refusal to recognize its political status. The Pretoria Agreement’s implementation shortcomings, including disarmament provisions, have further complicated matters. Eritrea’s exclusion from discussions has paved the way for its intervention in support of anti-Ethiopian factions, further straining relationships.
Amid strained diplomatic relations, both Ethiopia and Eritrea accuse each other of aiding opposing domestic groups, with Ethiopia’s ambition for Red Sea access aggravating tensions. Ethiopia’s historical claims to maritime rights are contentious, particularly following its agreement with Somaliland for strategic access, perceived by Eritrea as a challenge to its sovereignty.
Ethiopia’s military is concurrently engaged in combating Fano militia in the Amhara region, leading to concerns about its willingness to engage in full-scale conflict with Eritrea. An escalation into broader conflict risks inflaming ethnic tensions within Ethiopia, where multiple ethnic armed factions coexist.
The heightened instability in Tigray has implications for the broader Horn of Africa, particularly in the context of Sudan’s civil conflict, where Eritrean and Ethiopian interests intersect. Additionally, foreign powers, such as the UAE and Iran, are keenly observing the evolving dynamics, considering their stakes in the geopolitical landscape, while jihadist groups may exploit the turmoil for their gain. The overall situation remains precarious, with potential for significant regional consequences stemming from developments in Tigray.
The ongoing tensions in Tigray underscore a complex interplay of internal political divisions, external geopolitical interests, and unresolved historical grievances. As civilian populations flee and military mobilizations increase, the risk of conflict escalation remains alarmingly high. The effects of a renewed conflict could destabilize the broader Horn of Africa region, drawing in foreign powers and complicating the already fragile security environment. Urgent attention and intervention may be necessary to avert a larger catastrophe.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
