Ethiopia and Eritrea’s relations have oscillated between brief peace and severe conflict since Eritrea’s independence in 1993. The 2018 peace accord was praised but lacked comprehensive stakeholder involvement, leading to renewed tensions, particularly after the Tigray war. Recent geopolitical maneuvering and external influences exacerbate the threat of further armed conflict, emphasizing the need for international intervention and dialogue to restore stability in the region.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have had a tumultuous history characterized by a brief period of cooperation post-Eritrea’s independence in May 1993. Despite initial goodwill, relations soon deteriorated into conflict, culminating in the Ethio-Eritrean border war of 1998, which resulted in significant loss of life and resources. The Algiers Peace Agreement of 2000 intended to establish peace yet failed to promote lasting stability due to Ethiopia’s non-compliance with border rulings.
In July 2018, a rapprochement between the two countries shifted their diplomatic engagement, with resumption of flights and diplomatic ties after decades. This new relationship earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize, as hopes for stability in the Horn of Africa surged. However, the agreement was criticized for lacking stakeholder involvement, transparency, and essential institutional backing, resulting in a fragile peace effort.
The 2018 peace initiative did not gain traction among all factions, particularly the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which perceived it as a hostile move. Subsequently, this strengthened Addis Abeba’s position and exacerbated tensions leading to the Tigray war from 2020 to 2022. The conflict strained Ethiopia’s resources and diminished its diplomatic relations internationally.
The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in November 2022 aimed to bring about peace but notably excluded key players like the Amhara and Eritrean forces. Eritrea viewed the truce unfavorably, feeling undermined in its efforts against the TPLF. Consequently, relations returned to a stalemate, with Eritrea continuing to occupy parts of Tigray, hindering the peace process.
Tensions escalated further amid Ethiopia’s recent moves for access to the Red Sea, leading to a memorandum with Somaliland that sparked controversy in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea’s concerns about this deal have prompted it to strengthen ties with Egypt and Somalia, creating a new axis of opposition against Ethiopia.
Complicating the situation, Eritrean authorities imposed restrictions on Ethiopian Airlines, significantly downgrading bilateral relations. Allegations of Eritrea preparing for renewed conflict have emerged, underscored by troop mobilizations and heightened rhetoric from both sides, though an outright war currently seems unlikely.
The instability in the Horn of Africa is alarming, as multiple conflicts and external powers vie for influence, especially concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute with Egypt. Countries like the UAE and Turkey may also become increasingly involved in this complex geopolitical landscape.
The international community must remain vigilant and proactive to prevent further escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, promoting diplomatic engagement and direct dialogue to restore peace and stability in the region.
In summary, the historical tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, marked by conflict and fragile peace agreements, have intensified recently amid new geopolitical maneuvers. The failure to involve key stakeholders in peace processes coupled with rising external influence poses significant threats to regional stability. Proactive international support and renewed diplomatic efforts are essential to de-escalate tensions and foster trust between the nations, safeguarding peace in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
