A study forecasts that China’s dominance in the rare earth market could decline from 62% to 28% by 2035, with a further drop to 23% by 2040. The emergence of new sources in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland is identified as a key factor. The study highlights fundamental shifts in the industry, threatening China’s established resources.
A recent study reported in the journal Chinese Rare Earths suggests that China’s current dominance in the rare earths market could significantly decline over the next decade. Researchers from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy indicated a potential decrease in China’s market share from 62 percent to 28 percent by 2035, driven by emerging competitors in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland.
The research forecasts a further reduction to 23 percent by the year 2040, signaling that China may completely lose its previous stronghold in the industry. This shift is attributed to the development of new mining resources, particularly noting Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project and several ventures in South America.
The authors of the study emphasized these changes as indicative of “fundamental shifts” occurring within the global rare earth market. Even China’s established heavy rare earth resources are at risk as newer projects from rival regions emerge, suggesting a transformative phase for the industry ahead.
In summary, the CAS study forecasts a dramatic decline in China’s dominance in the rare earth market over the coming decade, with potential market share decreasing to 28 percent by 2035. Emerging mining projects in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland are contributing to these anticipated shifts, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the rare earth industry. The research underscores the need for vigilance as competitive landscapes continue to change.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
