South Sudan is witnessing a resurgence of violence and political instability, particularly following Uganda’s military involvement in March 2025. The White Army’s attacks against government forces indicate a significant escalation of conflict, raising fears of renewed civil war, which could destabilize the country further. To avert this, the government must engage in dialogue and community demobilization while the international community calls for accountability and peaceful resolutions to the conflict.
South Sudan is currently experiencing a deterioration in political stability and increasing violence, particularly in Upper Nile State. In March 2025, the Ugandan military intervened at the request of the South Sudanese government, conducting aerial bombardments. This action has been met with resistance from opposition groups, who have since ceased participation in discussions aimed at establishing a joint military system. These tensions threaten to unravel the 2018 power-sharing agreement, which had previously ended a protracted civil war.
The situation saw a significant escalation when, in early March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer ethnic group, engaged in violent confrontations with the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County. This outbreak of violence has led to nearly 50 casualties and numerous injuries, with the White Army claiming self-defense. The government’s military response has exacerbated tensions and showcased a historical backdrop of ethno-political strife, particularly between the Nuer and Dinka communities.
Historically, tensions between these communities date back to the 1991 SPLM split. The White Army formed during this split, primarily for defense and community protection, often operating autonomously from the political sphere. Riek Machar’s attempts to unify the Nuer militias have been largely unsuccessful, indicating a fragmented response to the current crisis in South Sudan.
Unlike the 2013 civil war, where government troops targeted the Nuer-majority Nasir, the recent White Army attacks appear to originate from local provocations. Specifically, a notable incident involving attacks on soldiers has resulted in considerable casualties and heightened animosities. The government’s response included a crackdown and arrests, reflecting an inclination to blame opposition leaders for the White Army’s actions, despite the latter’s independent history.
To prevent a reversion to civil war, South Sudan’s government must commit to dialogue and community demobilization. Ceasing arbitrary arrests and avoiding civilian bombardments is critical in fostering trust. Engagement with community leaders who influence the White Army is essential, particularly as the upcoming rainy season may provide an opportunity for peace-building efforts.
On the international front, there has been a need for stronger measures regarding the escalating violence. The UN mission in South Sudan has not adequately recognized the complexity of the White Army’s operation and has largely failed to counter the government’s oppressive tactics. Calling for the release of detained opposition leaders and emphasizing a commitment to address the root causes of conflict are vital for maintaining stability in the region.
In conclusion, South Sudan faces a critical juncture as rising violence and political tensions threaten to reverse the gains achieved through the 2018 power-sharing agreement. To avoid a return to widespread conflict, the government must prioritize dialogue over repression, engage with influential community leaders, and halt indiscriminate attacks against civilians. International actors must also advocate more robustly for accountability and political solutions that address the underlying grievances fueling this crisis.
Original Source: theconversation.com
