Rising political tensions and violence in South Sudan threaten to reignite civil war, following Ugandan military intervention. The White Army’s attacks in Upper Nile State reflect deep-rooted ethnic divisions, complicating governmental responses. To avoid war, dialogue and engagement with community leaders are essential, while the international community’s proactive stance is crucial for potential peace efforts.
The situation in South Sudan is deteriorating, marked by rising political tensions and increased violence in the Upper Nile State. Troops from Uganda intervened in early March 2025, conducting aerial bombardments which have aggravated opposition factions. These developments threaten to unravel the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, which had previously halted a protracted civil war. Jan Pospisil, an expert in South Sudan’s political dynamics, highlights the roots of escalating discontent.
As of early March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, has engaged South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County, resulting in at least 50 fatalities. The White Army claims its actions were defensive, reflecting long-standing ethnic tensions, particularly between the Nuer and Dinka groups. This violence follows patterns established in previous years, exacerbated by strong governmental responses, including confirmed aerial bombardments and the arrest of opposition leaders, further inflating community grievances.
Historically, tensions stem from the 1991 SPLM split, producing a Nuer faction and a Dinka-led faction, instigating enduring discord. The White Army emerged during this turmoil, focusing on Nuer defense. Riek Machar’s attempts to unify the Nuer militias have faltered, indicating the autonomy of the White Army in the current conflict, which remains essential for understanding the situation in South Sudan.
Unlike the 2013 civil war outbreak, where targeted violence ensued against the Nuer-majority Nasir, the recent White Army incidents are reactionary rather than dictated by overarching political commands. In February 2025, confrontations escalated following an attack on soldiers by the White Army, leading to a severe military setback for government forces that fueled indignation and violence.
The SPLM-led government’s recent narrative blames the opposition for fomenting unrest, and arrests of prominent opposition figures appear to opportunistically diminish their influence amidst military failures. This perspective discounts the agency and historical independence of the White Army, undermining any genuine attempts to resolve root issues behind the hostilities.
To avert a return to war, it is crucial that South Sudan engage in constructive dialogue and facilitate community demobilization efforts. The government must cease arbitrary detentions and indiscriminate military actions against civilians, particularly for those in Nasir County. Including community leaders from the White Army in discussions could foster peace, especially as the onset of the rainy season in April may hinder large-scale military operations, creating a window for confidence-building.
International actors, while condemning the violence in South Sudan, have so far taken minimal action. Enhanced engagement from the UN and global bodies is required, particularly in repudiating the unjust arrests of opposition figures and advocating for political solutions that fundamentally address the grievances contributing to the unrest.
The article underscores the escalating violence and political tensions in South Sudan, driven by historical ethnic conflicts and recent military interventions. The White Army’s independence and historical grievances complicate the conflict, and government responses have failed to address the root causes of violence. Moving forward, dialogue and community engagement, along with international support for peaceful solutions, are essential to prevent a descent back into civil war.
Original Source: theconversation.com
