Israel’s intelligence unit intercepted Hezbollah leaders admitting to their trauma and morale decline. Orna Mizrahi notes Lebanon’s government is working towards reclaiming sovereignty. Factors contributing to this shift include war fatigue among Lebanese, reduced Iranian influence, and Syria’s regime change. Despite a ceasefire, experts caution about Hezbollah’s resilience and the potential for renewed conflict.
Israel’s elite Unit 8200 has intercepted communications among top Hezbollah leaders, revealing their distress over recent military operations, which have significantly impacted their morale. Orna Mizrahi, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, emphasizes that Lebanon is at a pivotal moment, with its government striving to reclaim full sovereignty for the first time in nearly two decades.
Mizrahi identifies three primary factors contributing to this shift: first, the war fatigue among the Lebanese populace, particularly Hezbollah’s Shiite supporters, who have endured extensive destruction and displacements exceeding one million people. Second, Iran’s influence has diminished due to its loss of a significant ally in the region. Finally, the alteration in Syria’s governance has severed vital support channels for Hezbollah, further isolating them.
Under Ahmad al-Shara’s leadership, Syria, now driven by a radical Sunni agenda, presents an obstacle for Hezbollah. His anti-Hezbollah stance and calls for foreign withdrawal have compounded the group’s challenges. Additionally, new Lebanese government initiatives have curtailed Iranian supply routes to Beirut, obstructing arms transfers and funding.
Post-military defeat, Hezbollah accepted a US-mediated ceasefire in December 2024, permitting Israel to sustain a military presence along key border areas, which facilitates the gradual return of displaced individuals. Although initially resistant, Hezbollah aligned with other political entities in supporting General Joseph Aoun, a pro-Western president whose administration has diminished Hezbollah’s political clout.
Israel has actively engaged with General Aoun and various Lebanese factions, including the Druze and Sunni Muslims, mirroring historical intelligence collaborations from the 1950s. This cooperation previously aimed to counter the Palestine Liberation Organization’s dominance in Lebanon, which then favoured the rise of Hezbollah.
Despite acknowledging Hezbollah’s recent defeats, Dror Doron, an expert on Lebanon and Iran, observes that the group’s foundational ambitions remain intact. Hezbollah’s significant public displays of support, such as the mass attendance at Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral, signify their enduring aspirations amid adversity.
Although the ceasefire agreement necessitates Hezbollah’s disarmament, experts doubt the feasibility of such a transition. Doron asserts that disarming would negate Hezbollah’s identity as a resistance entity, as the group is heavily armed and possesses the capability to incite instability in Lebanon.
While Hezbollah may temporarily retreat domestically, any substantial threats to its interests could prompt renewed conflict. Israel remains vigilant, maintaining troop deployment in southern Lebanon and continuous aerial monitoring of Hezbollah maneuvers.
Israel’s strategic actions currently align with US backing. However, uncertainty arises from potential shifts in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, raising concerns over premature diplomatic negotiations with Lebanon that may embolden Hezbollah internally. Mizrahi predicts a continued atmosphere of caution from Hezbollah in response to Israel’s military operations, foreseeing the preservation of the ceasefire, albeit without significant progression in broader relations.
In conclusion, Lebanon finds itself at a significant juncture as its government attempts to regain control over its territory amidst the challenges posed by Hezbollah’s enduring presence and influence. The interplay of military dynamics, Iranian influence, and new political leadership sets the stage for a fragile ceasefire. Analysts suggest that while Israel maintains a cautious strategy, the complexities of Hezbollah’s identity and aspirations remain, potentially hindering prospects for a peaceful resolution. Continued vigilance and strategic engagement will be vital in navigating this complex landscape.
Original Source: www.thejc.com
