Ethiopia confronts rising tensions in Tigray two years after the Pretoria peace accords, with fears of renewed conflict amid internal power struggles. Displacement remains a concern as societal unrest grows, influenced by regional dynamics and external geopolitical interests.
Ethiopia currently faces heightened tensions following the two-year anniversary of the peace accords, known as the Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to end the conflict in Tigray. Despite initial calmness following the agreement, ongoing strife among Tigray’s factions poses significant risks of renewed conflict. Residents, like Kiflom Abraha from Mekelle, express deep concern over escalating tensions, stating, “People are worried,” as daily life deteriorates with increased costs and bank lines.
Despite the cessation of hostilities after the November 2022 peace deal, many individuals remain displaced and live in fear of a return to violence. Nigisti Garede, who leads the Tigray Teachers’ Association, remarks, “After the Pretoria Agreement, there was peace, but with many challenges.” Internal divisions among Tigrayan leaders have emerged, resulting in societal unrest and a breakdown of law and order.
The political landscape in Tigray has become fragmented due to power struggles among the region’s elite, sidelining pivotal figures like Getachew Reda. Military commanders have aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael, head of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), leading to a division that has historically never occurred within the TPLF. Analyst Martin Plaut notes, “The TPLF had been very united for many, many years,” emphasizing the gravity of their current split.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who began his administration with intentions of reform and democratization, has witnessed a deterioration of his reformist image. His battle against Tigray’s established elites, compounded by military conflicts, culminated in a prolonged and unresolved warfare experience. Plaut elaborates, stating that the goal to undermine the TPLF, while mutually agreed upon, remains unfulfilled.
Authorities anticipate that conflict escalation is imminent. Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae has expressed concerns that war “seems inevitable” and has advocated for negotiation efforts. As Ethiopia grapples with domestic strains, its neighbors, especially Eritrea, appear to be mobilizing for potential renewed warfare. Plaut emphasizes the cautious nature of President Isaias of Eritrea in handling interventions within Ethiopia.
The potential for renewed conflict occurs amidst broader crises in the Horn of Africa, including tensions in Sudan and complex regional dynamics involving Somalia. Various geopolitical interests from Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, critically influence the stability of the region. Plaut points out their significant financial leverage and ambitions, indicating that regional allegiances are fluid and outcomes are unpredictable.
In summary, Ethiopia finds itself at a critical juncture as internal divisions post-peace agreement threaten to spark renewed conflict in Tigray. The precarious situation, exacerbated by leadership disputes and the weakening of governance structures, poses significant regional stability risks. Neighboring countries are also poised to react, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. The involvement of external players from the Middle East adds an additional layer of complexity, warranting careful observation as Ethiopia navigates this tumultuous period.
Original Source: www.dw.com
