Ethiopia is on the brink of renewed conflict as internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and rising tensions with Eritrea exacerbate existing challenges. Economic hardships contribute to fears of violence while a leadership struggle within TPLF complicates the peace process. Experts warn that a war could ignite at any moment, urging immediate action to stabilize the region.
More than two years after a peace agreement concluded the Tigray war, internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and escalating tensions with Eritrea have renewed concerns regarding potential conflict in Ethiopia. Residents of Tigray, still recovering from the previous war that claimed around 600,000 lives, are experiencing severe economic distress characterized by fuel shortages, bank withdrawals, and soaring food prices, which have heightened fears of a resurgence in violence.
On March 11, clashes erupted in Mekele, the capital of Tigray, following the interim administration’s dismissal of three senior officers from the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). By March 13, the TDF had regained control over government institutions and the regional radio station, and had appointed a new mayor in Adigrat, Tigray’s second-largest city, which they captured a day earlier.
The internal crisis is primarily fueled by divisions within the TPLF regarding the sluggish implementation of the November 2022 peace deal. It remains concerning that over one million displaced individuals have not been able to return home, the TDF has not been disarmed, and Eritrean troops remain present in Ethiopia, contrary to the agreement’s stipulations.
Gérard Prunier, an esteemed historian, argues that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is hesitant to enforce the peace deal as he seeks to further marginalize Tigrayans, who previously held power for three decades. The internal factions complicate the situation, especially with growing rivalries between the TPLF president Debretsion Gebremichael and Tigray’s interim administrator Getachew Reda.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached alarming levels. Reports indicate that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently conferred with TPLF leaders loyal to Debretsion, a claim that has been denied by the TPLF leader. Prunier noted that Afwerki may support secessionists to disrupt Ethiopia, emphasizing the precariousness of the situation.
According to Tigrayan strategist Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, urgent measures must be taken to prevent Tigray from becoming a battleground for a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He expresses the sentiment of suffering endured by the people of Tigray, stressing the necessity of avoiding further conflict in an already beleaguered region.
In summary, Ethiopia faces the risk of renewed conflict due to internal divisions within the TPLF and escalating tensions with Eritrea. The economic distress and political power struggles in Tigray intensify fears of a resurgence in violence. As international observers note the close ties between Eritrea and TPLF leaders, the situation warrants immediate attention to prevent the region from becoming a site of renewed hostilities. The call for urgent intervention reflects the ongoing struggle for stability in Tigray and the broader implications for Ethiopian peace.
Original Source: international.la-croix.com
