The Gaza ceasefire has collapsed following Israeli airstrikes after failed negotiations with Hamas. The US has also targeted Houthi rebels in Yemen as part of a strategy to pressure Iran regarding nuclear discussions. Middle East expert Scott Lucas emphasizes that Israel’s military operations signify the ceasefire’s end, amidst a turbulent regional landscape affected by both military actions and internal crises in Iran.
In recent weeks, global attention has gravitated towards the ceasefire situation in Ukraine; however, significant developments have occurred regarding the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire. Initially brokered with the assistance of former President Donald Trump, the ceasefire is now deemed ineffective following the escalation of military actions between Israel and Hamas. Following unsuccessful negotiations, Israel halted humanitarian aid and initiated extensive airstrikes on Gaza, resulting in substantial casualties.
The United States responded to renewed threats from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen by not only targeting these insurgents with airstrikes, but also conveying a broader message to Iran regarding nuclear negotiations. Trump seeks to pressure Iranian leaders into revisiting the nuclear deal previously exited by the US, attempting to showcase a dual approach of military strength while projecting an image of a peacemaker in the region.
Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert, asserts that the recent airstrikes signify the unequivocal demise of the ceasefire. Despite the initial exchange of hostages suggesting progress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to consider concessionary steps for a comprehensive resolution has solidified the collapse. The lack of prospect for phase two of the ceasefire led to Israel’s suspension of humanitarian assistance, thereby resuming military action.
Netanyahu’s strategy for Gaza is currently short-term, focusing on hostage recovery amid ongoing political pressures, with Israeli military pursuits intensifying in the West Bank. While political ambitions for Gaza exist, they are hindered by ongoing violence. Notably, as the US escalates airstrikes and pressure in Yemen, the strategic intentions behind these actions raise questions about their effectiveness.
Iran’s relatively subdued reaction to the US airstrikes can be attributed to its internal crises. The Iranian economy is struggling significantly, facing rampant inflation and unemployment rates coupled with stringent governmental crackdowns, particularly against women’s rights. These domestic challenges dilute the ability of the Iranian leadership to engage in foreign confrontations, complicating any chances for new nuclear deal negotiations.
Trump’s administration appears to pursue pressure tactics as leverage in negotiations with Iran, but historical precedents indicate that coercive strategies rarely yield fruitful negotiations. Khamenei’s dismissal of discussions that are perceived as deceptive highlights the complex relationship. The diplomatic approach favored by Iran relies on measured confidence-building rather than threats, which is currently at odds with the US strategy.
In summary, the collapse of the Gaza ceasefire coincides with heightened military actions from both Israel and the United States, particularly against the Houthis in Yemen. The lack of a viable long-term strategy in Gaza and ongoing domestic unrest in Iran impede progress towards negotiations. The interplay of military tactics and political aspirations underlines a volatile regional situation, complicating the pursuit of a stable diplomatic resolution, especially in relation to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Original Source: theconversation.com
