Ethiopia and Eritrea are facing potential conflict amid renewed instability in Tigray, with fears escalating due to military mobilization and a historical backdrop of hostility. This situation jeopardizes the peace achieved following the 2018 rapprochement, risking a humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.
The potential for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has become a pressing concern, as officials and experts warn of escalating tensions following instability in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. This turbulence risks undoing the peace efforts initiated by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, and could lead to a new humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.
Fears of war have arisen due to the ongoing instability in northern Ethiopia, particularly following the civil war that raged from 2020 to 2022, causing widespread casualties. The Eritrean military had previously intervened in support of Ethiopia’s government during this war. A subsequent peace agreement, reached in November 2022, excluded Eritrea, straining relations further and igniting regional tensions.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had governed the Tigray region, has faced internal dissent with a splinter faction gaining control of Adigrat, accusing the interim government of betrayal. This situation has the potential to escalate, as both Eritrea and Ethiopia might support opposing factions, increasing the prospect of direct conflict.
Eritrea’s recent military mobilization and Ethiopia’s troop deployments towards the border illustrate the seriousness of the circumstances. Diplomats have reported these military movements, but official comments from the governments involved have not been forthcoming.
Historically, Ethiopia annexed Eritrea in 1962, leading to a brutal conflict for independence, culminating in Eritrea’s sovereignty in 1993. Ties were initially cordial but soured after a border dispute erupted into a devastating war from 1998 to 2000. Normalization of relations occurred in 2018, allowing for improved diplomatic and economic connections until tensions resurfaced following Ethiopia’s recent peace agreements with the TPLF, which Eritrea opposed.
In summary, the risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is heightened by recent destabilization in Tigray, historical grievances, and military mobilizations. The potential revival of hostilities threatens to reverse progress made following the groundbreaking peace initiatives of recent years and could plunge the region back into crisis. It is imperative that diplomatic efforts are reinvigorated to prevent the escalation of tensions into open warfare.
Original Source: ntvkenya.co.ke
