South Sudan experiences a surge in violence stemming from the spillover of the Sudan conflict and increasing tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar. The arrests of Machar’s allies amid ongoing clashes in Upper Nile have raised alarms. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is jeopardized by economic crises and internal divisions, heightening fears of widespread conflict.
South Sudan is witnessing a surge in violence, primarily driven by the escalating conflict in the neighboring Sudan, particularly impacting the Upper Nile state. The tenuous peace established through a 2018 agreement is now under threat as the internal divisions and rampant corruption within the country intensify.
Recent tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar are at the forefront of this crisis. The arrest of several of Machar’s associates, including the oil minister, has exacerbated conflicts, notably in Juba, where clashes have erupted in the Upper Nile region. The South Sudan’s National Security Service confirmed that individuals connected to the military confrontations have been detained.
Since mid-February, violent clashes have been reported in Upper Nile, as the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF), supported by various militias, confront the White Army, a youth-army aligned with Machar. A significant incident occurred when a U.N. helicopter was attacked while attempting a rescue operation, resulting in the death of a general and 27 soldiers, further compounding the humanitarian crisis with thousands displaced and many more injured.
The surge in violence comes five years after the peace agreement that concluded a brutal civil war primarily between Kiir and Machar. This conflict, ongoing since 2013, led to nearly 400,000 fatalities and displaced approximately 4 million people. The precarious peace situation is compounded by the civil unrest in Sudan that has emerged since April 2023.
The International Crisis Group highlighted that South Sudan, heavily reliant on oil revenues, lost significant income following damage to vital export pipelines near Khartoum. This economic downturn has precipitated a budgetary crisis for Kiir’s administration, undermining his patronage system and grip on power. Simultaneously, the military in Sudan has been known to exploit South Sudan’s ethnic tensions, heightening fears of rekindled conflicts between the Dinka and Nuer groups.
The risk of widespread chaos remains high for South Sudan, considered the world’s newest nation. As it grapples with deep-rooted corruption and engrained reliance on oil in a context of substantial poverty, escalating tensions could lead to violent outbreaks. Reports from various organizations, including Human Rights Watch, have noted the potential for widespread violence. Furthermore, the U.N. Commission on Human Rights has pointed to the political and military elites as key instigators of ongoing instability within the nation.
The commission’s chair, Yasmin Sooka, remarked on the leadership’s continuous violent power struggles, indicating a failure to meet the needs of the South Sudanese populace. This prevailing frustration towards Kiir and Machar’s prolonged hold on power, alongside inadequate governmental support, suggests that South Sudan is at an increasing risk of collapse, potentially becoming a stronghold for armed groups and illicit activities.
In conclusion, South Sudan is currently facing a critical situation marked by escalating violence, internal divisions, and economic distress, primarily driven by the broader conflict in Sudan. The ongoing power struggle between President Kiir and Vice President Machar poses a significant threat to the fragile peace established in 2018. If immediate measures are not taken to address these challenges, South Sudan risks entering a period of severe instability, with dire implications for its future stability and security.
Original Source: international.la-croix.com
