South Sudan faces a surge in violence, particularly in the Upper Nile state, exacerbated by tensions between leaders Salva Kiir and Riek Machar. The 2018 peace is threatened by the war in Sudan, leading to a budget crisis and heightened internal divisions. Reports indicate growing risks of widespread conflict unless international intervention occurs.
South Sudan is currently experiencing an alarming increase in violence, particularly within the Upper Nile state. This surge is primarily attributed to the ongoing war in Sudan, which is exacerbating existing internal divisions and pervasive corruption. The fragile peace established by a 2018 agreement is now significantly threatened, raising concerns about a potential regression into full-scale conflict.
Recent tensions have escalated between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, both former rebel leaders. Their rivalry intensified following the arrests of several of Machar’s allies, including the oil minister, in the capital, Juba, amidst violent clashes in the Upper Nile region. The National Security Service of South Sudan announced the detainment of individuals with confirmed ties to the ongoing military confrontations.
Since mid-February, violent encounters have emerged in Upper Nile, involving the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF), which is allied with local militias, against the “White Army,” a loose coalition of armed youths supporting Machar. A significant incident occurred when a U.N. helicopter, dispatched to aid the SSPDF, came under fire, resulting in the deaths of a general and 27 soldiers. These clashes have caused extensive displacement and numerous casualties, as reported by Human Rights Watch.
The resurgence of violence poses a considerable threat to the fragile peace secured by the 2018 agreement, which had concluded a civil war lasting from 2013 to 2018. This conflict claimed nearly 400,000 lives and displaced around four million individuals. Now, the instability in neighboring Sudan, which began in April 2023, is compounding South Sudan’s difficulties.
The International Crisis Group noted that South Sudan, heavily reliant on oil exports, faced a severe economic blow when a vital pipeline near Khartoum was damaged, resulting in a staggering loss of income. This economic downturn has led to a budgetary crisis for Kiir’s administration, undermining the financial resources necessary to maintain his patronage system and diminishing his authority.
Moreover, Sudan’s military has historically leveraged South Sudan’s ethnic tensions, particularly between the Dinka and Nuer populations, thereby exacerbating the risk of further conflict. Various international and non-governmental organizations have flagged the rising tensions as a potential precursor to widespread violence.
A report issued by the U.N. Commission on Human Rights accused the political and military leaders of South Sudan of perpetuating violence and instability. Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, stated, “The leadership continues its violent power struggles across the country and is failing the people of South Sudan.” As discontent grows over the leaders’ enduring dominance and the government’s inadequate provision of services, South Sudan stands on the brink of potential collapse, which could lead to an even more precarious situation involving militias and illegal activities.
In summary, South Sudan is grappling with a critical escalation of violence driven by internal rivalries and external pressures from the conflict in Sudan. The fragile peace established in 2018 is under serious threat due to renewed tensions between political leaders, economic challenges, and intensifying ethnic divisions. The international community must take heed of the warnings regarding the potential for widespread conflict and support efforts to stabilize the region before it spirals into chaos.
Original Source: international.la-croix.com
