Tensions are escalating between Ethiopia and Eritrea as military forces mobilize, risking a potential conflict that could destabilize the Horn of Africa. Internal divisions within the Tigrayan Defense Forces and regional rivalries complicate the situation. Gulf states and Western countries must intervene diplomatically to avert a broader crisis, as inaction could lead to escalating violence and geopolitical chaos in the region.
In light of increasing military mobilization in the Horn of Africa, it is necessary for Gulf states and their Western partners to prevent the impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The cessation of hostilities agreement signed in late 2022 marked the end of a brutal war, with a death toll surpassing 600,000, as the situation in Tigray becomes precarious amid deepening political divides.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which previously dominated Ethiopian politics, now faces internal rivalries exacerbated by a weakened interim administration led by Getachew Reda. Recent power struggles within the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) indicate an alarming potential for coup attempts or political assassinations that could worsen unrest in the region.
The international arena is equally tumultuous, as rising tensions within the Horn of Africa align with Gulf states’ geopolitical rivalries regarding control over the Red Sea. The historical animosities between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly following the Pretoria Agreement’s stipulations, compound the atmosphere of mistrust threatening to escalate military conflict.
With military forces mobilizing on all sides, including the Ethiopian federal army and Eritrea’s Defense Forces, the likelihood of conflict seems imminent. The situation risks dragging neighboring regions, such as Sudan and South Sudan, into broader violence, threatening to destabilize a critical area of the African continent.
It is imperative that diplomatic solutions, directed by a coalition of Western and Middle Eastern states alongside the African Union, be pursued urgently. A proactive and consolidated diplomatic effort could potentially mitigate hostilities and avert a larger regional catastrophe that reverberates beyond the immediate actors involved.
The repercussions of inaction would not only compromise regional security but may also encourage aggressive territorial ambitions reminiscent of previous conflicts in unstable areas such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The time to act is now, to avert the rapid descent into chaos that a renewed Ethiopian-Eritrean war could herald.
In conclusion, the danger of an imminent conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea necessitates immediate international attention. The historical rivalries, compounded by domestic political instability and military mobilization, pose significant risks to the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region. Proactive diplomatic strategies must be employed to prevent escalation into a regional crisis, ensuring that the lessons of past conflicts are heeded to maintain stability and peace.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
