This article discusses the urgent need to prevent an impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which could destabilize the entire Red Sea region. The cessation of hostilities agreement from late 2022 is under threat as factional struggles in Tigray intensify and military mobilization escalates. A coordinated intervention from Gulf states and Western allies is crucial to suppress escalating tensions.
The urgent need to avert the potential conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been underscored by recent military mobilizations. The cessation of hostilities agreement signed in late 2022, which concluded a brutal war resulting in an estimated death toll exceeding 600,000, is now at risk. As the interim administration in Tigray marks its two-year anniversary, political tensions are escalating among competing factions, leading to concerns of a renewed conflict.
Political dynamics in Tigray are complicated by historical rivalries, particularly post-Premier Abiy Ahmed’s rise in 2018. His sidelining of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has led to internal factional struggles, including the removal of critical military leaders accused of treachery. Both the Ethiopian federal army and the Eritrean Defense Forces are increasingly mobilizing troops, raising alarms that violence could erupt again in the Red Sea region.
Regional powers, particularly Gulf nations, must manage their interests to prevent a conflict that could further destabilize the Horn of Africa. Asmara and Addis Ababa blame each other for attempts to undermine regional stability, with Ethiopia alleging Eritrea supports insurgencies and Eritrea perceiving Ethiopia’s moves to access the Red Sea as a threat to its sovereignty.
The Horn of Africa’s geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by ongoing crises in neighboring regions such as Sudan, demonstrate that any conflict will not be contained. The ongoing civil war in Sudan and the presence of various armed factions illustrate the intricate web of conflicts that could be aggravated by renewed hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea, leading to widespread chaos in the region.
Currently, the erosion of global diplomatic norms poses significant risks, as aggressive territorial ambitions gain momentum in international relations. Without concerted intervention, the potential for an armed conflict arising from the breakdown of diplomatic agreements like the Pretoria Agreement could destabilize not just Ethiopia and Eritrea, but the entire northeastern African landscape.
In summary, the looming threat of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses significant risks to regional stability and requires immediate intervention. Tensions due to political rivalries and military mobilizations, coupled with historical grievances, necessitate a unified response from regional and global powers to maintain peace. Failure to act may lead to widespread chaos, further complicating existing crises in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
