In February 2025, southern Botswana faced deadly floods due to extreme rainfall, resulting in at least 31 fatalities and substantial displacements. Studies indicate that human-induced climate change has amplified rainfall intensity, while inadequate urban infrastructure contributed to the flooding’s severity. Ongoing efforts aim to enhance flood resilience through improved drainage systems and land-use regulations to better prepare for future extreme weather events.
In mid-February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced severe flooding due to heavy rainfall, resulting in tragic casualties and significant displacement. The floods claimed 31 lives, including six children in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana. The excessive rainfall from February 16 to 20 disrupted vital infrastructure, halting major ports and necessitating the closure of government schools, while emergency services struggled to manage isolation of residents.
Researchers from various countries conducted a study to determine the influence of human-induced climate change on the floods in Gaborone. They examined the five-day maximum rainfall events that heavily impacted this urbanized area. The population density in Gaborone has increased, outpacing the capabilities of its drainage systems, particularly in low-lying regions vulnerable to flooding.
The February 2025 heavy rainfall event is considered rare, expected to occur once every 10 to 200 years, with current climate conditions contributing to unusual intensity. An analysis of weather data indicates that such events may have a return period of 40 years, suggesting a 2-3% possibility of occurrence each year. Observations reveal that 5-day rainfall events would be significantly less likely in cooler climates.
The researchers also evaluated climate model simulations, which showed a range of outcomes regarding the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. Some models suggested an increase in extreme events, while others indicated no change or a decrease, complicating precise quantification of climate change impacts. In the context of forecasted climate changes, a 2.6 °C increase compared to pre-industrial levels is expected to enhance the severity of heavy rainfall events further.
Taking into account historical trends showing consistent increases in rainfall intensity alongside findings from climate models, the researchers conclude that human-induced climate change has amplified the rainfall contributing to flooding in southern Botswana. The region’s inadequate infrastructure, designed to manage less severe flooding, dramatically exacerbated the consequences of the February extreme weather event.
In response to these challenges, measures to enhance flood resilience are underway, focusing on improving drainage systems, regulating land use, and enhancing preparedness for disasters. These efforts include expanding drainage capabilities, enforcing zoning laws, and upgrading critical infrastructure to withstand future climate effects. A comprehensive strategy that incorporates multi-hazard assessments into urban planning and public safety initiatives is crucial for increasing resilience against future extreme weather events.
In summary, the severe flooding in Gaborone in February 2025 was largely driven by extreme rainfall compounded by human-induced climate change and rapid urbanization. The city’s drainage infrastructure remains inadequate for its growing population, heightening vulnerability to such events. Enhanced resilience efforts through improved infrastructure and regulatory measures are essential to mitigate future impacts of climate-related disasters.
Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org
