Hamas seeks to solidify its military control over Gaza by establishing a governance model similar to Hezbollah’s in Lebanon, aiming for a ceasefire to regroup and rearm. While Egypt supports Palestinian autonomy, proposals risk allowing Hamas to exploit this situation. Israel must maintain military pressure and ensure Hamas’s complete dismantlement before considering a future governance arrangement to prevent a resurgence of violence.
Hamas aims to conclude its ongoing conflict while retaining military authority over Gaza, similar to Hezbollah’s prior dominance in Lebanon. The organization seeks to secure a ceasefire, rebuild its militant forces, and reinforce its political control over Gaza. By adopting a governance model akin to Hezbollah’s, Hamas intends to present a façade of legitimate authority while perpetuating its military-terrorist control on the ground.
This strategy would facilitate Hamas’s ability to regroup and rearm for future confrontations with Israel, claiming the ability to conduct large-scale attacks against Israeli civilians. All regional proposals, whether from Egypt or Israel, that aim to shift political control to alternative governance structures could inadvertently mirror the perilous situation Lebanon experienced under Hezbollah, especially as Israel has not fully neutralized Hamas’s military capabilities.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently articulated his opposition to the forceful eviction of Palestinians, advocating for their sustained presence on their land. He also emphasized support for a ceasefire and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, including an administrative committee of independent technocrats to manage Gaza temporarily and supervise humanitarian aid until the Palestinian Authority is restored.
Amid these discussions, Egypt has suggested a roadmap proposing interim rule by a coalition of Arab and Western states, although details addressing Hamas’s exclusion and funding for reconstruction remain vague. Reports indicate that Hamas has shown willingness to accept these governance frameworks, suggesting that the organization sees this as a strategy for maintaining its hold on power.
Although there have been assertions of Hamas potentially transferring Gaza authority to the Palestinian Authority under Egyptian pressure, Israeli reactions have dismissed these notions outright. Reports indicate that Hamas is engaged in talks with other Palestinian factions to consolidate power under previously established agreements, demonstrating their intent to retain control over Gaza.
Hamas’s proposed governance model is clearly inspired by Hezbollah’s past in Lebanon, where the latter maintained military dominance despite the existence of a sovereign government. Hezbollah influenced Lebanese security policies and operated with significant independence, establishing a shadow government that allowed it to amass weapons, particularly with Iranian support.
Such a setup could pose significant challenges for Israel. Should Hamas succeed in mirroring Hezbollah’s paradigm, it could significantly enhance its military capabilities with minimal interference from Israel. Any military actions against Hamas in a scenario where they control a recognized governing body risks international backlash, much like Israel’s past confrontations with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The potential repercussions are dire as Hamas would utilize any ceasefire to rearm and bolster its tunnel and rocket operations, utilizing the guise of an internationally recognized government as a shield. Consequently, Israel may need to re-engage militarily in Gaza and establish territorial control to ensure the complete dismantlement of Hamas’s infrastructure.
Key prerequisites for Israel include the destruction of Hamas’s military regime and establishing comprehensive operational freedom for counterterrorism efforts without restrictions, ensuring that any future governance structure cannot allow for a resurgence of terrorism. Only after completing these objectives could a moderated autonomy guided by Gulf states and the United States be contemplated for Gaza, while retaining security oversight to preempt further struggles against terrorism.
Hamas’s aspirations to maintain control over Gaza while establishing a façade of governance reminiscent of Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon pose substantial risks. The potential for international backlash complicates Israel’s military responses, underscoring the imperative for Israel to comprehensively address Hamas’s military infrastructure. A proactive approach focusing on neutralizing Hamas while allowing for a future governance arrangement is necessary to prevent the resurgence of hostilities and ensure regional security.
Original Source: besacenter.org
