Ethiopia and Eritrea face escalating tensions that could lead to war, as officials in the Tigray region warn of imminent conflict. The ongoing instability follows a civil war in Tigray, and recent factional splits within the TPLF further complicate the situation. Analysts caution that the region’s political instability could ignite renewed warfare, with dire humanitarian implications for the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia and Eritrea are reportedly on the brink of renewed conflict, as officials in the Tigray region express grave concerns about escalating tensions. This situation threatens to undo the peaceful reconciliation achieved under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. The potential for direct clashes between these two powerful nations may attract the involvement of other regional forces, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa.
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a Tigrayan official, warned, “At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” highlighting the precarious security situation. The ongoing instability follows a devastating civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022, which resulted in significant loss of life and suffering among civilians.
The recent split within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) further complicates the dynamics, as factional conflicts ensue. The dissident faction recently seized Adigrat, prompting the region’s interim leader, Getachew Reda, to request government support against these uprisings. He expressed concerns that the Tigray people might once again suffer from a war they did not desire, stating, “There is clear antagonism between Ethiopia and Eritrea.”
In response to the rising tensions, Eritrea initiated nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, while Ethiopia has positioned troops near the Eritrean border. Both nations remain silent on recent developments, leaving analysts apprehensive about the possibility of conflict. According to Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, former U.S. and EU envoys, the region’s political instability serves as “dry tinder waiting for a match.”
Relations between the two nations have historically been tumultuous, marked by Eritrea’s struggle for independence resulting in a protracted conflict ending in 2000. Although ties were normalized in 2018, recent exclusion of Eritrea from vital peace negotiations has reignited tensions. Additionally, Abiy’s statements regarding Ethiopia’s access to the sea have provoked further ire, leading to Eritrea’s security pact with Egypt and Somalia, seen as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s regional ambitions.
The renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses significant threats not only to their bilateral relations but also to the broader stability of the Horn of Africa. The ramifications of a potential war could lead to a humanitarian disaster, echoing past conflicts in the region. With rising tensions and military mobilization on both sides, it is crucial to monitor developments closely and seek diplomatic solutions to avert catastrophic consequences for the affected populations.
Original Source: www.usnews.com
