The Horn of Africa is on the brink of renewed conflict as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate, particularly regarding the Tigray region. Despite a prior peace agreement, nationalistic rhetoric and military mobilization threaten to unravel fragile peace. A concerted international diplomatic effort is critical to prevent another catastrophic war, which could destabilize the region and beyond.
The Horn of Africa is facing a pivotal moment as tensions rise between Ethiopia and Eritrea, specifically concerning the Tigray region, which has endured significant suffering during previous conflicts. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) signed on November 3, 2022, between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had momentarily restored peace, but this fragile tranquility is now jeopardized. The Ethiopian government’s portrayal of the TPLF as an ally of Eritrea risks undermining the Pretoria Agreement and could precipitate another devastating conflict.
The Pretoria Agreement represented a significant diplomatic victory, emerging from a context of military stalemate and diplomatic pressure that forced the Ethiopian government to acknowledge that continuing conflict was untenable. However, there appears to be a shift in the Ethiopian government’s approach, as unresolved issues remain, notably the electoral recognition of the TPLF and the restoration of territories to Tigray, both crucial elements of the COHA. The enduring hardships in Tigray, compounded by existing conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, create an alarming backdrop against which renewed hostilities could erupt.
Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have intensified since the signing of the Pretoria Agreement as both sides pursue differing agendas. Eritrea’s leadership seeks the total dismantlement of the TPLF, viewing its continued existence as a threat, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made assertive statements regarding Eritrea’s access to the sea. Regardless of assurances from Ethiopia, both nations are strengthening their military positions and forging regional alliances, with Eritrea aligning with other nations against Ethiopia.
The Ankara Accord, signed in December 2024, curtailed Ethiopia’s aspirations for coastline access, prompting a reactionary surge of nationalistic rhetoric from Ethiopian state media. Tensions escalated when Eritrea closed its embassy in Ethiopia amid the emergence of a youth-led anti-regime movement inside Eritrea, accompanied by Ethiopian military mobilization along the border. These developments converge around the prospect of renewed conflict, with Ethiopian state media inciting fears of war and framing Eritrea’s actions provocatively.
The Ethiopian government has been accused of sowing discord within Tigray by accusing the TPLF of colluding with Eritrea and justifying military actions aimed at reclaiming strategic territories. While Ethiopia’s officials acknowledge the presence of Eritrean troops within their borders, the narrative crafted around this admission appears aimed at legitimizing potential aggression towards Eritrea rather than fostering peace. Tigray is precariously positioned amidst these tensions, facing both federal obstruction and internal dissent.
As patterns reminiscent of pre-war rhetoric resurface, the necessity for international diplomatic engagement becomes ever more pressing. The potential consequences of a renewed conflict transcend national borders, likely triggering instability across the Horn of Africa and attracting extremist groups. A collective and decisive diplomatic effort from global powers, particularly the United States and the European Union, is imperative to prevent a draconian repeat of the 2020-2022 conflict.
A military confrontation would not only exacerbate the humanitarian crises in Tigray but also destabilize broad regions, endangering international shipping routes and U.S. interests in the area. History has demonstrated the catastrophic fallout of inaction; thus, it is essential for world leaders to urgently advocate for dialogue and de-escalation among all parties involved to avert disaster.
In conclusion, the delicate peace established in the Horn of Africa is under grave threat from rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly concerning the Tigray region. Immediate and concerted diplomatic efforts are essential to prevent a resurgence of conflict that could lead to widespread instability. The lessons from past wars underscore the urgency for the international community to act decisively, ensuring that peace and security are maintained in this volatile region.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
