Recent violence in Syria, primarily instigated by loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad, has raised concerns of renewed civil conflict. Despite civilian casualties and clashes, experts believe a new civil war is unlikely for now. The new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa faces significant challenges, particularly in economic recovery and ensuring minority rights, which are essential for stability.
Recent violence in Syria has raised concerns of a resurgence of sectarian warfare, yet experts suggest that the situation does not currently signal the onset of a new civil war. The unrest, primarily attributed to loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad, has led to significant civilian casualties, with hundreds reportedly killed amidst clashes involving various armed groups amidst the backdrop of the regime’s collapse in December.
The violence was anticipated due to Assad loyalists, many of whom remain armed and concentrated in western regions near Latakia. Reports indicate that these loyalists have initiated conflicts against the new regime led by Ahmed al-Sharaa of Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Al-Sharaa mobilized security forces to confront these loyalists, yet violence ensued, resulting in the death of numerous civilians amidst the chaos.
Despite these concerns of escalating violence, it is essential to note that Assad loyalists lack popular support due to the regime’s previous abuses against the Syrian populace. Al-Sharaa and his administration must act cautiously to avoid further provoking unrest. Addressing critical economic challenges and ensuring the rights of minority groups are essential steps for stability.
Al-Sharaa has expressed commitment to improving the economy and respecting minority rights, raising hopes for a more inclusive governance approach. However, uncertainty remains regarding his intentions and whether his rhetoric signifies genuine evolution in leadership style or a temporary strategy to appeal to international audiences.
Speculation regarding foreign intervention includes potential Iranian involvement, although credible evidence remains scarce. Major Arab states are notably hesitant to engage in another proxy conflict in Syria, preferring to concentrate on internal matters and the ongoing crisis in Gaza instead of military involvement.
Regarding America’s role, the U.S. administration has largely distanced itself from direct involvement, with no plans to intervene militarily in Syria’s internal dynamics. Conversely, the recent agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces under U.S. auspices marks a significant development in stabilizing the region, contingent on both parties’ commitments.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria remains significant as its leadership seeks to consolidate its influence and establish a friendly government in Damascus. This alignment is crucial for Turkish President Erdoğan in terms of mitigating perceived threats from Kurdish autonomy and enhancing trade relations with Gulf states, further entrenching Turkey’s geopolitical standing in the Middle East.
In summary, while Syria is currently witnessing a surge in violence largely stemming from loyalists of the former Assad regime, this does not necessarily indicate the resurgence of a civil war. The new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa faces critical challenges, including economic recovery and respecting minority rights, which will be crucial for achieving stability. Observing the reactions of both domestic groups and international stakeholders will be essential in understanding the evolving landscape of Syria.
Original Source: www.cfr.org
