This article examines the historical and contemporary challenges in Syria, detailing the rise and fall of the Assad regime, the emergence of HTS, and the implications for regional dynamics. It further discusses the significance of current U.S. policy in shaping Syria’s future amidst international power struggles.
The article discusses the historical and current struggle for Syria, initially outlined in Patrick Seale’s 1965 book, emphasizing the ongoing contest for regional dominance among various powers. The author notes that Syria experienced turmoil, including several coups and a brief unification with Egypt before Hafez al-Assad consolidated power in 1971, establishing a regime that traded stability for authoritarian rule, particularly favoring the Alawite community.
Following Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar attempted reforms, but his response to the Arab Spring led to civil war. Russian and Iranian military support allowed him to retain control despite the war’s devastating impact. By December 2016, though the civil war was declared over, Syria remained fractured, with various factions controlling different territories.
The article highlights the emergence of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) following the civil war, which established governance in Idlib, a situation Assad sought to rectify through invasion, thwarted by Turkey’s concerns over refugee influx. In December 2024, in a surprising turn of events, HTS launched a successful offensive, seizing Aleppo, Homs, and ultimately Damascus, resulting in the collapse of Assad’s rule and the ascension of al-Joulani.
The implications of this regime change are profound. It ends the Alawite dominance, raising questions about governance and legitimacy. Al-Joulani’s previous jihadist connections complicate his position as he attempts to redefine his identity and attract international recognition. Domestically, his regime must negotiate its standing with various local communities to reestablish unity.
Regionally, the shift poses threats to Iranian influence in Syria, a critical aspect of Tehran’s strategy. In light of Assad’s fall, Turkey may attempt to consolidate its relations with HTS, while other actors like Saudi Arabia also seek to engage the new regime for pragmatic partnerships. Israel, warily observing the potential for radical groups obtaining advanced weapons, has actively engaged in countermeasures and taken control of strategic territories.
The shift in U.S. policy is pivotal for Syria’s future. The article indicates that prior administrations displayed hesitance towards active involvement, risking a decline in stability and a missed opportunity for constructive engagement with the new leadership. Suggesting that expert advice should guide U.S. policy, it underscores the necessity of taking a proactive stance in shaping a stable Middle Eastern order in the wake of these changes.
In conclusion, the ongoing struggle for Syria is characterized by the complex interplay of domestic and international actors seeking influence in the region. The fall of the Assad regime signifies a pivotal shift in Syrian politics, which brings both opportunities for new leadership under al-Joulani and challenges of governing a divided state. The responses of global powers, particularly the United States, will be crucial in shaping the future political landscape of Syria and its regional relationships, emphasizing the need for a thoughtful and strategic approach to policy formulation.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
