Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces growing fears of conflict with Eritrea amidst dire domestic crises, including economic collapse and rising insurgency. While some dismiss the likelihood of war due to Abiy’s internal struggles, a deeper analysis indicates that he may consider military action as a means of diverting attention from these issues. This situation poses significant risks to both national stability and regional peace, necessitating vigilance from the international community.
In recent weeks, concerns have grown regarding the potential of an Ethiopian military invasion of Eritrea, particularly targeting the strategic port of Assab. Analysts attribute this apprehension to provocative rhetoric from the Ethiopian government, spearheaded by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and echoed by military officials. Observers from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia express fears about Abiy’s military ambitions, despite some skeptics dismissing such fears as unrealistic given Abiy’s existing internal challenges.
While some analysts believe that Abiy’s internal turmoil may inhibit his ability to wage a regional war, a closer examination reveals a much graver situation. The fragmented Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) indicates an escalation of conflict internally, notably due to Abiy’s integration of Tigrayan forces into his military. This strategy, supported by military leaders like former TPLF chief Samora Yunis, underscores Abiy’s precarious position amid a cascade of domestic crises, making any potential conflict with Eritrea appear less strategic and more a desperate bid for survival.
Abiy’s motives for such a conflict may not stem from a genuine desire for victory but rather a cynical ploy to divert attention from Ethiopia’s alarming domestic issues. The country is facing severe economic challenges, including high inflation and currency shortages worsened by the suspension of US aid, leading to dire food and health crises. Additionally, ongoing conflicts, such as the unresolved Tigrayan conflict and the growing insurgency by groups like the Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, have rendered many regions ungovernable and drastically limited Abiy’s operational freedom.
The region also experiences heightened ethnic tensions, with reports of hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced since 2018. Moreover, Abiy’s increasing reliance on drone warfare has raised alarms both domestically and internationally, placing Ethiopia in dangerous territory as violations of human rights and targeted violence escalate under his regime.
Under immense pressure, Abiy may view a conflict with Eritrea as a necessary distraction, believing that Eritrea will primarily focus on defensive actions while he governs from Addis Ababa. Initiating conflict could allow him to shift international blame away from Ethiopia’s internal issues. However, this strategy is shortsighted, posing risks to regional stability and personal survival, primarily driven by desperation rather than strategic foresight. The international community must remain vigilant in recognizing this dangerous maneuver and take proactive measures to prevent further escalation of the conflict.
In summary, the growing concerns surrounding the possibility of Ethiopian conflict with Eritrea stem from complex domestic issues faced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Internal crises, including economic collapse, political fragmentation, and ethnic tensions, compound his precarious position, leading to speculation that he may resort to war as a diversion. While such actions could momentarily shift attention away from domestic turmoil, this reckless gamble threatens both regional stability and the well-being of millions. It is crucial for the international community to monitor the situation closely and take appropriate preventative measures.
Original Source: borkena.com
