South Sudan is facing renewed conflict as tensions rise between rival factions following attacks by a Nuer militia aligned with Riek Machar. The country’s fragile unity government, established in 2018, is jeopardized by local violence and external pressures from the Sudanese civil war. Urgent intervention from regional leaders is essential to prevent escalation into full-scale warfare and humanitarian crisis.
South Sudan is facing the possibility of renewed conflict as a Nuer militia aligned with former rebel leader Riek Machar seized an army base in Nasir on March 4. President Salva Kiir’s forces allegedly attacked Machar’s troops in Ulang County, escalating tensions in the capital, Juba, where Kiir has detained several of Machar’s allies. The fragile unity government, established under a 2018 peace deal, now stands at risk as violent clashes in Upper Nile threaten to merge with the ongoing war in Sudan. African leaders such as those from Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa should intervene urgently to prevent an escalation of hostilities.
The 2018 peace agreement between Kiir and Machar has been precarious. Although it has prevented widespread warfare, local violence continues to occur, largely disconnected from the power struggle between Kiir and Machar. The civil war in Sudan further complicates the situation, with Kiir’s government under increased pressure as the country’s oil revenue has dwindled after a critical pipeline burst amidst the conflict. This fiscal crisis limits Kiir’s ability to maintain his patronage network, resulting in widespread dissatisfaction.
Kiir has attempted to navigate relationships with both the Sudanese military and paramilitary forces, which has proven challenging. Initially aligned more closely with General Burhan’s military, Kiir’s position shifted as negotiations with Hemedti’s RSF became necessary for resuming oil flows. The deteriorating relationship with Burhan’s authorities, following a political alliance between the RSF and a Sudanese rebel group, is now a growing concern, indicating a delicate balance of power in the region.
The ongoing hostilities in Upper Nile could represent a significant spillover from Sudan’s conflict. The Sudanese military historically exploits ethnic divisions in South Sudan, particularly between Kiir’s Dinka and Machar’s Nuer factions. Diplomatic sources suggest that the Sudanese military may be rejuvenating ties with Nuer militias, which would explain the recent escalation in violence. These developments raise the risk of consolidating control over the Sudan-South Sudan border while complicating Kiir’s relationship with both military factions involved in the Sudanese conflict.
Increasing violence appears imminent, with fears that Nuer militias may attempt to seize Malakal, leading to communal massacres that could exacerbate the already volatile situation throughout South Sudan. Various military operations from both sides could emerge, and the influence of Machar over opposition militias remains uncertain given the shifting loyalties among local actors. The ongoing unrest could ignite widespread conflict that tests the viability of the peace agreement.
While hostilities currently center in Upper Nile, the potential for violence exists throughout South Sudan. Machar remains mainly protected by Kiir’s forces following their agreement to prevent further bloodshed. However, recent events, including the death of a Dinka general amid clashes, heighten tensions and result in widespread fears of retributions against Machar’s supporters. Observers suggest that Kiir may leverage the situation to reinforce his power among the Dinka ethnic group.
Should the conflict reignite, the consequences may be dire. A collapse of both Kiir’s regime and the 2018 peace arrangement risks catastrophic outcomes, including the possibility of ethnic cleansing, widespread violence among various militias, and increased regional instability. Civil conflict could exacerbate existing tensions in Sudan and lead to further foreign intervention as groups vie for power and resources.
The need for immediate and decisive action from regional actors to mediate the escalation of violence remains critical. Diplomatic efforts, particularly from leaders like Kenyan President William Ruto and others, must prioritize de-escalation to prevent a return to all-out conflict. Additionally, the United Nations should prepare its peacekeeping forces to safeguard civilians and counter any potential ethnic massacres, echoing the urgent need for preventive measures as the situation develops.
In conclusion, South Sudan teeters on the brink of renewed conflict due to increasing tensions between rival factions amid the fallout from the Sudanese civil war. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is endangered by rising violence fueled by old rivalries. Regional leaders must exert their influence to mediate these tensions and avert a potential humanitarian catastrophe. Immediate diplomatic coordination and active measures from the international community are essential to maintain peace and stability in South Sudan before the situation deteriorates further.
Original Source: www.pmldaily.com
