Following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Saudi Arabia has recalibrated its Lebanon strategy to exert greater influence and impose conditional political support. This shift aims to curb Hezbollah’s power and push Lebanon towards normalization with Israel. President Joseph Aoun is navigating these complex ties, as the country faces critical choices amid broader geopolitical dynamics.
Recent developments following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in November indicate a renewed effort by Saudi Arabia to impose what some are referring to as a ‘hidden guardianship’ over Lebanon. This critical moment arose post-war, as the United States and its allies intend to exploit Lebanon’s vulnerabilities to instigate political changes that were unattainable through military means. Saudi Arabia has been chosen to lead this initiative due to its established influence on Lebanese Sunni factions.
Riyadh has swiftly adapted its policy regarding Lebanon even prior to the formal ceasefire. Oversight of Lebanese affairs has been reassigned from the Royal Court, previously managed by Nizar al-Aloula, to the Foreign Ministry under the leadership of Faisal bin Farhan, indicating a shift toward more active diplomacy.
The Saudi leadership is now engaging with various Lebanese factions and religious institutions while pressuring Lebanon on pivotal issues such as presidential elections and government formation. This renewed engagement follows Saudi Arabia’s decision in 2017 to distance itself from Lebanon’s political landscape, which involved significant repercussions for former prime minister Saad Hariri.
President Joseph Aoun of Lebanon, handling the political landscape since taking office on January 9, has been rebuilding relationships with Saudi Arabia, viewing the kingdom as a key player for Lebanon’s recovery. His initial visit to Riyadh illustrated his commitment to restoring these ties, highlighting discussions with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused on bilateral relations.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s re-engagement comes with crucial stipulations. The kingdom is demanding that Lebanon eliminate Hezbollah’s influence, enforce international resolutions, and validate the state’s authority over all territories. Riyadh’s support is now contingent upon Beirut’s compliance with these conditions rather than being unconditional as in the past.
Lebanon is subjected to scrutiny under Saudi-American expectations to limit Hezbollah’s power and resources. The measures include enforcing stringent financial controls on areas that could potentially aid the resistance movement, along with a push for Lebanon to distance itself from the Axis of Resistance regionally.
According to journalist Maysam Rizk, both Saudi Arabia and the US are observing Lebanon closely, shaping their strategy with political leverage rather than military confrontation. The objective is not only to disarm Hezbollah in southern regions but also to diminish its influence throughout Lebanon under the pretext of reforms.
Faced with shifting regional dynamics, Saudi Arabia is working towards enhancing its influence in Lebanon to counter competitors, particularly Qatar. Riyadh aims to utilize its financial resources to influence Lebanon’s political direction, aligning with Washington’s approach against Hezbollah and its allies.
Political analyst Dr. Fouad Ibrahim believes Saudi Arabia is attempting to take advantage of the perceived setbacks faced by the resistance in Lebanon following recent conflicts, considering it a significant opportunity to assert control. Furthermore, the destabilization of Syrian leadership is seen as a favorable point for Saudi involvement in Lebanese affairs.
There are apprehensions that this renewed Saudi involvement may lead toward normalizing relations between Lebanon and Israel. Dr. Ibrahim emphasizes that Saudi Arabia intends to coerce Lebanon into accepting these normalization conditions while simultaneously pressuring the Sunni community to adopt a narrative supportive of these objectives.
President Aoun is slated for a follow-up visit to Saudi Arabia to strengthen bilateral ties and alleviate travel restrictions. However, the actual implementation of promised support remains uncertain, as Riyadh continues its assessment of Lebanon’s compliance with its conditions.
As Lebanon navigates its complex political landscape, it faces decisive choices between compliance with Saudi Arabia’s emerging orders or resistance against them. The implications of these decisions encompass both profound economic and political ramifications, revealing the precarious balance Lebanon must maintain in regional geopolitics.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s intensified engagement in Lebanon post-ceasefire reflects a strategic shift aimed at exerting influence through conditional political and financial support. This recalibration involves pressing Lebanon to take decisive actions against Hezbollah and work toward normalization with Israel. President Joseph Aoun’s efforts to revitalize ties with Riyadh underscore the kingdom’s pivotal role in Lebanon’s future, albeit under strict conditions. The ongoing political dynamics will determine whether Lebanon aligns itself with Saudi and American objectives or charts its own course amidst rising challenges.
Original Source: thecradle.co
