Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa proposes foreign military forces to combat increasing drug-related violence as the country approaches presidential elections. Amidst record homicide rates and challenges in government stability, experts suggest focusing on social policies rather than militarization. The effectiveness of Noboa’s strategies will be critical as the country seeks peace and security.
As Ecuador prepares for its presidential elections on April 13, incumbent Daniel Noboa is advocating for foreign military special forces to combat drug trafficking and organized crime. This proposal occurs following his attempts to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases, reflecting the country’s escalating security crisis, where homicide rates have surged dramatically since he took office in October 2023.
Ecuador has witnessed a spike in violence, becoming the most dangerous nation in Latin America, with 1,300 homicides recorded in just the first 50 days of 2025—signifying a 40% increase compared to the same timeframe in the previous year. Positioned between major cocaine-producing countries, Ecuador has also emerged as a leading cocaine exporter to Europe, attracting the attention of various dangerous cartels.
After armed gangs disrupted live broadcasts last year, U.S. experts began recommending a plan similar to “Plan Colombia” for Ecuador, indicative of the need for substantial military and counternarcotics support. This strategy previously succeeded in reducing crime in Colombia post-conflict but may not directly translate to Ecuador’s unique challenges following the void left by a 2016 peace deal.
In response to Ecuador’s declaration of war on numerous criminal groups, the Biden administration engaged with Noboa, resulting in agreements related to defense and intelligence. The signing of a status of forces agreement (SOFA) has allowed U.S. personnel to operate with immunity, while an aid package includes equipment and support aimed at bolstering local security efforts.
Matrix Aviation Inc. has recently registered as a foreign agent to facilitate U.S. funding for Ecuador’s counter-narcotics initiatives. Interestingly, Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo, who has no formal military experience, is positioned to lead these efforts despite his background as a counter-terrorism instructor. This highlights the unconventional approach Noboa is adopting to combat national security threats.
Amid these developments, Noboa is courting support from the Trump administration to enhance U.S. military involvement as he campaigns against progressive rival Luisa Gonzalez, a former protégé of President Rafael Correa. Gonzalez’s earlier term was marked by reduced crime levels and economic growth, contrasting sharply with Noboa’s current struggles amid increasing violence.
Although crime reduced by 16% during Noboa’s tenure, the situation remains dire, with numerous states of exception declared and rising militarization in conflict areas. Experts suggest that the next president should prioritize strengthening local government and addressing poverty rather than relying heavily on military intervention.
Others warn against implementing a militarized response akin to past programs in Colombia, advocating for investments in education and economic reforms. A recent SOUTHCOM publication has echoed concerns about militarization potentially exacerbating public dissent against foreign troops stationed in Ecuador.
The economic landscape complicates Noboa’s efforts. Following Ecuador’s arms deal with the U.S. in exchange for modern military supplies, economic repercussions from Russia have spurred Noboa to reconsider his strategies, particularly regarding vital trade relations.
Despite legislative efforts to enhance assistance and investments, Ecuador’s economy faces challenges, hindering prospects for significant U.S. security packages. As Noboa approaches the elections amid regional instability and burgeoning migration issues, the efficacy of his past policies in combating crime will be scrutinized, and the upcoming election may determine the future of Ecuador’s security and governance.
In summary, President Daniel Noboa’s administration faces significant challenges as Ecuador grapples with escalating violence and drug trafficking. His strategy of incorporating foreign military forces and seeking U.S. aid is under scrutiny, with experts advocating for comprehensive social policies to address the underlying issues of crime. The upcoming elections will crucially determine Ecuador’s path forward, with voters looking for effective solutions to restore peace and security amid a dire national crisis.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
