Argentine analysts predict year-end inflation of 23.3% for 2025, an increase from prior forecasts, while raising the economic growth forecast to 4.8%. Monthly inflation has decelerated to 2.2% in January after previously nearing 300% in early 2023, with a focus on continued decline throughout the year under President Milei’s strict measures.
Recent forecasts by Argentine analysts indicate a year-end inflation rate of 23.3% for 2025, as reported in the central bank’s market expectations survey. This figure represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s estimates. Additionally, analysts have slightly raised their projections for annual economic growth to 4.8% for the same year.
The analysis was conducted between February 26 and 28, involving 39 participants from various consultancies, research centers, and financial institutions. Argentina’s INDEC statistics agency is slated to release the February inflation data soon, with additional economic growth figures for the last quarter of 2024 expected on March 19.
In a recent move, the central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate from 32% to 29%, emphasizing a perceived decline in inflation. The monthly inflation rate slowed to 2.2% in January, marking the lowest rate since mid-2020. However, the annual inflation rate had approached 300% earlier in the previous year, with the current rate stabilizing around 85% in January.
Analysts anticipate that February’s inflation will align closely with the January figures, albeit remaining on a downward trajectory throughout the year. The government’s commitment to reducing inflation remains a priority under President Javier Milei’s administration, which has implemented stringent austerity measures and seeks to secure new funding through the International Monetary Fund.
In conclusion, Argentine analysts project a 23.3% inflation rate for 2025, indicating a slight increase from previous forecasts, alongside a modest growth outlook of 4.8%. As the government prioritizes addressing inflation through monetary policy adjustments and austerity measures, the latest trends in inflation suggest a promising downward trajectory. Key economic data is forthcoming, which may further influence these projections.
Original Source: www.marketscreener.com
